Conditional value-at-risk optimization for managing area pricing risk in the Finnish electricity market

Differences in area pricing in the Nordic electricity markets creates price risk for large electricity consuming industries. The thesis will present a method to determine the optimal amount of electricity price area differentials (EPAD) futures to purchase for hedging area price risk in the Finnish...

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Päätekijä: Kramb, Jason
Muut tekijät: Jyväskylä University School of Business and Economics, Jyväskylän yliopiston kauppakorkeakoulu, Taloustieteet, Business and Economics, Jyväskylän yliopisto, University of Jyväskylä
Aineistotyyppi: Pro gradu
Kieli:eng
Julkaistu: 2021
Aiheet:
Linkit: https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/74995
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author Kramb, Jason
author2 Jyväskylä University School of Business and Economics Jyväskylän yliopiston kauppakorkeakoulu Taloustieteet Business and Economics Jyväskylän yliopisto University of Jyväskylä
author_facet Kramb, Jason Jyväskylä University School of Business and Economics Jyväskylän yliopiston kauppakorkeakoulu Taloustieteet Business and Economics Jyväskylän yliopisto University of Jyväskylä Kramb, Jason Jyväskylä University School of Business and Economics Jyväskylän yliopiston kauppakorkeakoulu Taloustieteet Business and Economics Jyväskylän yliopisto University of Jyväskylä
author_sort Kramb, Jason
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description Differences in area pricing in the Nordic electricity markets creates price risk for large electricity consuming industries. The thesis will present a method to determine the optimal amount of electricity price area differentials (EPAD) futures to purchase for hedging area price risk in the Finnish electricity market for a large electricity consumer. A hedging portfolio was constructed by minimizing total electricity costs subject to the constraint that the conditional value at risk (CVaR) stays below a given level. To illustrate how this method can be used in practice, three simple forecasting models were developed to predict the futures premium for the Finnish area price. These forecasting models are used to generate possible future scenarios of the future premium, which is then used in the hedging portfolio optimization to minimize CVaR. The performance of the CVaR hedging strategies using different forecasting methods is compared against the performance of minimum variance and two fixed hedge ratio strategies.
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spellingShingle Kramb, Jason Conditional value-at-risk optimization for managing area pricing risk in the Finnish electricity market conditional value-at-risk EPAD Taloustiede Economics 2041 riskienhallinta sähkömarkkinat optimointi risk management electricity market optimisation
title Conditional value-at-risk optimization for managing area pricing risk in the Finnish electricity market
title_full Conditional value-at-risk optimization for managing area pricing risk in the Finnish electricity market
title_fullStr Conditional value-at-risk optimization for managing area pricing risk in the Finnish electricity market Conditional value-at-risk optimization for managing area pricing risk in the Finnish electricity market
title_full_unstemmed Conditional value-at-risk optimization for managing area pricing risk in the Finnish electricity market Conditional value-at-risk optimization for managing area pricing risk in the Finnish electricity market
title_short Conditional value-at-risk optimization for managing area pricing risk in the Finnish electricity market
title_sort conditional value at risk optimization for managing area pricing risk in the finnish electricity market
title_txtP Conditional value-at-risk optimization for managing area pricing risk in the Finnish electricity market
topic conditional value-at-risk EPAD Taloustiede Economics 2041 riskienhallinta sähkömarkkinat optimointi risk management electricity market optimisation
topic_facet 2041 EPAD Economics Taloustiede conditional value-at-risk electricity market optimisation optimointi risk management riskienhallinta sähkömarkkinat
url https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/74995 http://www.urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:jyu-202104092309
work_keys_str_mv AT krambjason conditionalvalueatriskoptimizationformanagingareapricingriskinthefinnishelectricityma