The Bayesian estimation of private investment in Finland

Abstract This paper estimates an investment equation for private investment using Bayesian estimation techniques. In the paper we derive the optimal capital accumulation behavior in the model economy from the households’ optimization problem of utility. The equation is derived as in Smets and Wou...

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Main Author: Pietiläinen, Samuli
Other Authors: Kauppakorkeakoulu, School of Business and Economics, Taloustieteet, Business and Economics, University of Jyväskylä, Jyväskylän yliopisto
Format: Master's thesis
Language:eng
Published: 2009
Subjects:
Online Access: https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/25501
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author Pietiläinen, Samuli
author2 Kauppakorkeakoulu School of Business and Economics Taloustieteet Business and Economics University of Jyväskylä Jyväskylän yliopisto
author_facet Pietiläinen, Samuli Kauppakorkeakoulu School of Business and Economics Taloustieteet Business and Economics University of Jyväskylä Jyväskylän yliopisto Pietiläinen, Samuli Kauppakorkeakoulu School of Business and Economics Taloustieteet Business and Economics University of Jyväskylä Jyväskylän yliopisto
author_sort Pietiläinen, Samuli
datasource_str_mv jyx
description Abstract This paper estimates an investment equation for private investment using Bayesian estimation techniques. In the paper we derive the optimal capital accumulation behavior in the model economy from the households’ optimization problem of utility. The equation is derived as in Smets and Wouters (2003). The model contains costly adjustment of investment and random shocks to adjustment cost function. The driving variable of investment is Tobin Q variable. The empirical proxy for Tobin Q in this paper is the ratio of OMX Helsinki Cap Index to the price index of the physical capital. The investment series is the seasonally adjusted private investment in quarterly national accounts. The AR(1) modelled investment shocks are found to be less persistent in Finland than in the euro area. The estimated median of persistence parameter for Finland is 0.485. Also the shocks to investment adjustment cost function are found to vary less in Finland as in the euro area. The estimated standard deviation of the shocks is 0.065. The adjustment cost parameter is roughly the same for both data sets. The results are robust to loosening the strict prior of discount factor, beta=0.99. The paper also provides discussion about adjustment cost parameter and we investigate the behaviour of the posterior chain of B with different prior distributions for the parameter. Tiivistelmä Tässä pro gradussa estimoidaan yhtälö yksityisille investoinneille bayesilaisella menetelmällä. Tässä työssä optimaalinen pääoman akkumulointi mallikansantaloudessa johdetaan kotitalouksien hyödyn optimointi-ongelmasta. Investointiyhtälö johdetaan kuten Smets’n ja Wouterin (2003) artikkelissa. Malli sisältää investointien sopeutuskustannukset ja satunnaisia shokkeja sopeutuskustannus-funktioon. Investointien selittävä muuttuja on Tobin Q -muuttuja. Empiirinen vastine teoreettiselle Tobin Q muuttujalle on OMX Helsinki Cap indexin arvo suhteutettuna fyysisen pääoman hintaindeksillä. Työssä käytetty investointisarja on kausitasoitettu yksityisten investointien sarja kansantalouden neljännestilinpidossa. Investointishokit ovat AR(1)-prosessi. Shokit osoittautuvat vähemmän pysyviksi Suomessa kuin euroalueella. Estimoitu AR(1)-kerroin investointishokeille on 0.485. Investointishokit myös vaihtelevat vähemmän Suomessa kuin euroalueella, sillä estimoitu shokkien keskihajonta on 0.065. Investointien sopeutuskustannus on likipitäen samankokoinen Suomessa ja euroalueella. Tulokset ovat robusteja kiinnitetyn diskonttausparametrin beta=0.99 löysäämiselle antamalla betalle eri priorijakaumia. Tässä työssä myös keskustellaan sopeutuskustannusparametrista ja tutkitaan sen posterioiriketjujen käyttäytymistä kun sille annetaan eri priorijakaumia.
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In the paper we derive the optimal capital accumulation behavior in the model economy from the households\u2019 optimization problem of utility. The equation is derived as in Smets and Wouters (2003). The model contains costly adjustment of investment and random shocks to adjustment cost function. The driving variable of investment is Tobin Q variable.\r\n\r\nThe empirical proxy for Tobin Q in this paper is the ratio of OMX Helsinki Cap Index to the price index of the physical capital. The investment series is the seasonally adjusted private investment in quarterly national accounts.\r\n\r\nThe AR(1) modelled investment shocks are found to be less persistent in Finland than in the euro area. The estimated median of persistence parameter for Finland is 0.485. Also the shocks to investment adjustment cost function are found to vary less in Finland as in the euro area. The estimated standard deviation of the shocks is 0.065. The adjustment cost parameter is roughly the same for both data sets. The results are robust to loosening the strict prior of discount factor,\r\nbeta=0.99. The paper also provides discussion about adjustment cost parameter and we investigate the behaviour of the posterior chain of B with different prior distributions for the parameter.\r\n\r\n\r\nTiivistelm\u00e4\r\n\r\nT\u00e4ss\u00e4 pro gradussa estimoidaan yht\u00e4l\u00f6 yksityisille investoinneille bayesilaisella menetelm\u00e4ll\u00e4. T\u00e4ss\u00e4 ty\u00f6ss\u00e4 optimaalinen p\u00e4\u00e4oman akkumulointi mallikansantaloudessa johdetaan kotitalouksien hy\u00f6dyn optimointi-ongelmasta. Investointiyht\u00e4l\u00f6 johdetaan kuten Smets\u2019n ja Wouterin (2003) artikkelissa. Malli sis\u00e4lt\u00e4\u00e4 investointien sopeutuskustannukset ja satunnaisia shokkeja sopeutuskustannus-funktioon. Investointien selitt\u00e4v\u00e4 muuttuja on Tobin Q -muuttuja.\r\n\r\nEmpiirinen vastine teoreettiselle Tobin Q muuttujalle on OMX Helsinki Cap indexin arvo suhteutettuna fyysisen p\u00e4\u00e4oman hintaindeksill\u00e4. Ty\u00f6ss\u00e4 k\u00e4ytetty investointisarja on kausitasoitettu yksityisten investointien sarja kansantalouden nelj\u00e4nnestilinpidossa. \r\n\r\nInvestointishokit ovat AR(1)-prosessi. Shokit osoittautuvat v\u00e4hemm\u00e4n pysyviksi Suomessa kuin euroalueella. Estimoitu AR(1)-kerroin investointishokeille on 0.485. Investointishokit my\u00f6s vaihtelevat v\u00e4hemm\u00e4n Suomessa kuin euroalueella, sill\u00e4 estimoitu shokkien keskihajonta on 0.065. Investointien sopeutuskustannus on likipit\u00e4en samankokoinen Suomessa ja euroalueella. Tulokset ovat robusteja kiinnitetyn diskonttausparametrin beta=0.99 l\u00f6ys\u00e4\u00e4miselle antamalla betalle eri\r\npriorijakaumia. T\u00e4ss\u00e4 ty\u00f6ss\u00e4 my\u00f6s keskustellaan sopeutuskustannusparametrista ja tutkitaan sen posterioiriketjujen k\u00e4ytt\u00e4ytymist\u00e4 kun sille annetaan eri priorijakaumia.", "language": "", "element": "description", "qualifier": "abstract", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.description.provenance", "value": "Submitted using Plone Publishing form by Mikko Pietil\u00e4inen (misapiet) on 2010-10-19 17:17:50.108288. Form: Pro gradu -lomake (1 tekij\u00e4) (https://kirjasto.jyu.fi/julkaisut/julkaisulomakkeet/pro-gradu-lomake-1-tekijae). 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spellingShingle Pietiläinen, Samuli The Bayesian estimation of private investment in Finland sijoitustoiminta private investment DSGE model Bayesian inference investment adjustment costs DSGE-malli investointien sopeutuskustannus Kansantaloustiede Economics 2041 investoinnit bayesilainen menetelmä
title The Bayesian estimation of private investment in Finland
title_full The Bayesian estimation of private investment in Finland
title_fullStr The Bayesian estimation of private investment in Finland The Bayesian estimation of private investment in Finland
title_full_unstemmed The Bayesian estimation of private investment in Finland The Bayesian estimation of private investment in Finland
title_short The Bayesian estimation of private investment in Finland
title_sort bayesian estimation of private investment in finland
title_txtP The Bayesian estimation of private investment in Finland
topic sijoitustoiminta private investment DSGE model Bayesian inference investment adjustment costs DSGE-malli investointien sopeutuskustannus Kansantaloustiede Economics 2041 investoinnit bayesilainen menetelmä
topic_facet 2041 Bayesian inference DSGE model DSGE-malli Economics Kansantaloustiede bayesilainen menetelmä investment adjustment costs investoinnit investointien sopeutuskustannus private investment sijoitustoiminta
url https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/25501 http://www.urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:jyu-201010193005
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