Correlated uncertainties in Bayesian inference

Tässä työssä sisällytetään onnistuneesti korreloituneet virheet Bayesilaiseen päättelyyn erityisesti kvanttiväridynamiikan (QCD) ja suurienergisten syvien epäelastisten elektroni--protoni-törmäysten kontekstissa, joita on mitattu DESY:n HERA-hiukkaskiihdyttimellä. Bayesilaisen lähestymistavan avulla...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Karhunen, Mikko
Other Authors: Matemaattis-luonnontieteellinen tiedekunta, Faculty of Sciences, Fysiikan laitos, Department of Physics, Jyväskylän yliopisto, University of Jyväskylä
Format: Master's thesis
Language:eng
Published: 2025
Subjects:
Online Access: https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/99785
_version_ 1826225766416777216
author Karhunen, Mikko
author2 Matemaattis-luonnontieteellinen tiedekunta Faculty of Sciences Fysiikan laitos Department of Physics Jyväskylän yliopisto University of Jyväskylä
author_facet Karhunen, Mikko Matemaattis-luonnontieteellinen tiedekunta Faculty of Sciences Fysiikan laitos Department of Physics Jyväskylän yliopisto University of Jyväskylä Karhunen, Mikko Matemaattis-luonnontieteellinen tiedekunta Faculty of Sciences Fysiikan laitos Department of Physics Jyväskylän yliopisto University of Jyväskylä
author_sort Karhunen, Mikko
datasource_str_mv jyx
description Tässä työssä sisällytetään onnistuneesti korreloituneet virheet Bayesilaiseen päättelyyn erityisesti kvanttiväridynamiikan (QCD) ja suurienergisten syvien epäelastisten elektroni--protoni-törmäysten kontekstissa, joita on mitattu DESY:n HERA-hiukkaskiihdyttimellä. Bayesilaisen lähestymistavan avulla luomme moniulotteisia posterior-todennäköisyysjakaumia eri QCD-mallien parametreille. Jakaumat tuovat esiin parametrien väliset korrelaatiot ja niiden epävarmuudet sekä mahdollistavat niiden hyödyntämisen uusissa laskuissa. Tuloksemme osoittavat, että kokeellisen datan korreloituneet epävarmuudet voivat vaikuttaa merkittävästi malliparametrien posterior-jakaumiin ja parhaisiin sovituksiin. Tulkitsemme elektroni--protoni-törmäykset dipolikuvassa, jossa elektroni emittoi virtuaalisen fotonin, joka fluktuoi kvarkki--antikvarkki pariksi eli dipoliksi, joka lopulta vuorovaikuttaa levossa olevan protonin kanssa vahvalla vuorovaikutuksella. Tutkitut dipolimallit olivat Golec-Biernatin ja Wüsthofin (GBW) malli sekä törmäysparametrista riippuvainen saturaatiomalli (IPsat), jotka kuvaavat gluoni saturaatiota korkeissa partonitiheyden alueissa. Kaikilla sovelletuilla malleilla saatiin onnistunut kuvaus HERA:n vaikutusaladatasta, mutta charmihiukkastuottodatan lisääminen heikensi GBW-mallin suorituskykyä molempien datasetien yhtäaikaisessa kuvaamisessa. This thesis presents a framework to implement correlated uncertainties in Bayesian inference, specifically in the context of quantum chromodynamics (QCD) and high-energy deep inelastic electron-proton collisions from DESY's HERA particle accelerator. With Bayesian inference, we can determine multidimensional posterior probability distributions for the non-perturbative parameters describing the proton high-energy structure. The distributions reveal the correlations and uncertainties of the parameters in a model and enables one to propagate them to new calculations. Our results reveal that including correlated uncertainties from experimental data can have a significant effect on the Bayesian posterior distributions and best fits for model parameters. We describe the electron-proton collisions in the dipole picture, where the electron emits a high momentum virtual photon $\gamma^*$ that fluctuates into a quark-antiquark pair (dipole), which in turn interacts with the proton at rest via strong interaction. The applied models to describe the dipole-proton scattering were the Golec-Biernat and Wüsthof (GBW) model and the impact parameter dependent saturation (IPsat) model, that describe the gluon saturation phenomena in the high parton density region. A successful description of the inclusive HERA cross section data is obtained with all applied models. However, upon including charm production cross section data, we observed a decline in GBW's performance to describe both datasets simultaneously.
first_indexed 2025-01-27T21:00:44Z
format Pro gradu
free_online_boolean 1
fullrecord [{"key": "dc.contributor.advisor", "value": "M\u00e4ntysaari, Heikki", "language": "", "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "advisor", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.contributor.author", "value": "Karhunen, Mikko", "language": "", "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "author", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.date.accessioned", "value": "2025-01-27T07:18:55Z", "language": null, "element": "date", "qualifier": "accessioned", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.date.available", "value": "2025-01-27T07:18:55Z", "language": null, "element": "date", "qualifier": "available", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.date.issued", "value": "2025", "language": "", "element": "date", "qualifier": "issued", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.identifier.uri", "value": "https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/99785", "language": null, "element": "identifier", "qualifier": "uri", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.description.abstract", "value": "T\u00e4ss\u00e4 ty\u00f6ss\u00e4 sis\u00e4llytet\u00e4\u00e4n onnistuneesti korreloituneet virheet Bayesilaiseen p\u00e4\u00e4ttelyyn erityisesti kvanttiv\u00e4ridynamiikan (QCD) ja suurienergisten syvien ep\u00e4elastisten elektroni--protoni-t\u00f6rm\u00e4ysten kontekstissa, joita on mitattu DESY:n HERA-hiukkaskiihdyttimell\u00e4. Bayesilaisen l\u00e4hestymistavan avulla luomme moniulotteisia posterior-todenn\u00e4k\u00f6isyysjakaumia eri QCD-mallien parametreille. Jakaumat tuovat esiin parametrien v\u00e4liset korrelaatiot ja niiden ep\u00e4varmuudet sek\u00e4 mahdollistavat niiden hy\u00f6dynt\u00e4misen uusissa laskuissa. Tuloksemme osoittavat, ett\u00e4 kokeellisen datan korreloituneet ep\u00e4varmuudet voivat vaikuttaa merkitt\u00e4v\u00e4sti malliparametrien posterior-jakaumiin ja parhaisiin sovituksiin.\n\nTulkitsemme elektroni--protoni-t\u00f6rm\u00e4ykset dipolikuvassa, jossa elektroni emittoi virtuaalisen fotonin, joka fluktuoi kvarkki--antikvarkki pariksi eli dipoliksi, joka lopulta vuorovaikuttaa levossa olevan protonin kanssa vahvalla vuorovaikutuksella. Tutkitut dipolimallit olivat Golec-Biernatin ja W\u00fcsthofin (GBW) malli sek\u00e4 t\u00f6rm\u00e4ysparametrista riippuvainen saturaatiomalli (IPsat), jotka kuvaavat gluoni saturaatiota korkeissa partonitiheyden alueissa. Kaikilla sovelletuilla malleilla saatiin onnistunut kuvaus HERA:n vaikutusaladatasta, mutta charmihiukkastuottodatan lis\u00e4\u00e4minen heikensi GBW-mallin suorituskyky\u00e4 molempien datasetien yht\u00e4aikaisessa kuvaamisessa.", "language": "fi", "element": "description", "qualifier": "abstract", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.description.abstract", "value": "This thesis presents a framework to implement correlated uncertainties in Bayesian inference, specifically in the context of quantum chromodynamics (QCD) and high-energy deep inelastic electron-proton collisions from DESY's HERA particle accelerator. With Bayesian inference, we can determine multidimensional posterior probability distributions for the non-perturbative parameters describing the proton high-energy structure. The distributions reveal the correlations and uncertainties of the parameters in a model and enables one to propagate them to new calculations. Our results reveal that including correlated uncertainties from experimental data can have a significant effect on the Bayesian posterior distributions and best fits for model parameters.\n\nWe describe the electron-proton collisions in the dipole picture, where the electron emits a high momentum virtual photon $\\gamma^*$ that fluctuates into a quark-antiquark pair (dipole), which in turn interacts with the proton at rest via strong interaction. The applied models to describe the dipole-proton scattering were the Golec-Biernat and W\u00fcsthof (GBW) model and the impact parameter dependent saturation (IPsat) model, that describe the gluon saturation phenomena in the high parton density region. A successful description of the inclusive HERA cross section data is obtained with all applied models. However, upon including charm production cross section data, we observed a decline in GBW's performance to describe both datasets simultaneously.", "language": "en", "element": "description", "qualifier": "abstract", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.description.provenance", "value": "Submitted by Paivi Vuorio (paelvuor@jyu.fi) on 2025-01-27T07:18:50Z\nNo. of bitstreams: 0", "language": "en", "element": "description", "qualifier": "provenance", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.description.provenance", "value": "Made available in DSpace on 2025-01-27T07:18:55Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0\n Previous issue date: 2025", "language": "en", "element": "description", "qualifier": "provenance", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.format.extent", "value": "74", "language": "", "element": "format", "qualifier": "extent", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.language.iso", "value": "eng", "language": null, "element": "language", "qualifier": "iso", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.rights", "value": "In Copyright", "language": "en", "element": "rights", "qualifier": null, "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.other", "value": "dipole picture", "language": "", "element": "subject", "qualifier": "other", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.other", "value": "deep inelastic scattering", "language": "", "element": "subject", "qualifier": "other", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.other", "value": "correlated uncertainties", "language": "", "element": "subject", "qualifier": "other", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.other", "value": "Bayesian inference", "language": "", "element": "subject", "qualifier": "other", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.title", "value": "Correlated uncertainties in Bayesian inference", "language": "", "element": "title", "qualifier": null, "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.type", "value": "master thesis", "language": null, "element": "type", "qualifier": null, "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.identifier.urn", "value": "URN:NBN:fi:jyu-202501271546", "language": null, "element": "identifier", "qualifier": "urn", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.type.ontasot", "value": "Master\u2019s thesis", "language": "en", "element": "type", "qualifier": "ontasot", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.type.ontasot", "value": "Pro gradu -tutkielma", "language": "fi", "element": "type", "qualifier": "ontasot", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.contributor.faculty", "value": "Matemaattis-luonnontieteellinen tiedekunta", "language": "fi", "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "faculty", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.contributor.faculty", "value": "Faculty of Sciences", "language": "en", "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "faculty", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.contributor.department", "value": "Fysiikan laitos", "language": "fi", "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "department", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.contributor.department", "value": "Department of Physics", "language": "en", "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "department", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.contributor.organization", "value": "Jyv\u00e4skyl\u00e4n yliopisto", "language": "fi", "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "organization", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.contributor.organization", "value": "University of Jyv\u00e4skyl\u00e4", "language": "en", "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "organization", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.discipline", "value": "Teoreettinen fysiikka", "language": "fi", "element": "subject", "qualifier": "discipline", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.discipline", "value": "Theoretical Physics", "language": "en", "element": "subject", "qualifier": "discipline", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "yvv.contractresearch.funding", "value": "0", "language": "", "element": "contractresearch", "qualifier": "funding", "schema": "yvv"}, {"key": "dc.type.coar", "value": "http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_bdcc", "language": null, "element": "type", "qualifier": "coar", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.rights.accesslevel", "value": "openAccess", "language": null, "element": "rights", "qualifier": "accesslevel", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.type.publication", "value": "masterThesis", "language": null, "element": "type", "qualifier": "publication", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.oppiainekoodi", "value": "4024", "language": "", "element": "subject", "qualifier": "oppiainekoodi", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.yso", "value": "hiukkasfysiikka", "language": null, "element": "subject", "qualifier": "yso", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.yso", "value": "bayesilainen menetelm\u00e4", "language": null, "element": "subject", "qualifier": "yso", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.yso", "value": "Markovin ketjut", "language": null, "element": "subject", "qualifier": "yso", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.yso", "value": "fysiikka", "language": null, "element": "subject", "qualifier": "yso", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.yso", "value": "alkeishiukkaset", "language": null, "element": "subject", "qualifier": "yso", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.yso", "value": "mallintaminen", "language": null, "element": "subject", "qualifier": "yso", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.yso", "value": "kvanttiv\u00e4ridynamiikka", "language": null, "element": "subject", "qualifier": "yso", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.yso", "value": "ep\u00e4varmuus", "language": null, "element": "subject", "qualifier": "yso", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.yso", "value": "particle physics", "language": null, "element": "subject", "qualifier": "yso", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.yso", "value": "Bayesian analysis", "language": null, "element": "subject", "qualifier": "yso", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.yso", "value": "Markov chains", "language": null, "element": "subject", "qualifier": "yso", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.yso", "value": "physics", "language": null, "element": "subject", "qualifier": "yso", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.yso", "value": "elementary particles", "language": null, "element": "subject", "qualifier": "yso", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.yso", "value": "modelling (representation)", "language": null, "element": "subject", "qualifier": "yso", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.yso", "value": "quantum chromodynamics", "language": null, "element": "subject", "qualifier": "yso", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.yso", "value": "uncertainty", "language": null, "element": "subject", "qualifier": "yso", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.rights.url", "value": "https://rightsstatements.org/page/InC/1.0/", "language": null, "element": "rights", "qualifier": "url", "schema": "dc"}]
id jyx.123456789_99785
language eng
last_indexed 2025-02-18T10:56:27Z
main_date 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z
main_date_str 2025
online_boolean 1
online_urls_str_mv {"url":"https:\/\/jyx.jyu.fi\/bitstreams\/0d1ea511-4964-421d-a815-68926ea83cd7\/download","text":"URN:NBN:fi:jyu-202501271546.pdf","source":"jyx","mediaType":"application\/pdf"}
publishDate 2025
record_format qdc
source_str_mv jyx
spellingShingle Karhunen, Mikko Correlated uncertainties in Bayesian inference dipole picture deep inelastic scattering correlated uncertainties Bayesian inference Teoreettinen fysiikka Theoretical Physics 4024 hiukkasfysiikka bayesilainen menetelmä Markovin ketjut fysiikka alkeishiukkaset mallintaminen kvanttiväridynamiikka epävarmuus particle physics Bayesian analysis Markov chains physics elementary particles modelling (representation) quantum chromodynamics uncertainty
title Correlated uncertainties in Bayesian inference
title_full Correlated uncertainties in Bayesian inference
title_fullStr Correlated uncertainties in Bayesian inference Correlated uncertainties in Bayesian inference
title_full_unstemmed Correlated uncertainties in Bayesian inference Correlated uncertainties in Bayesian inference
title_short Correlated uncertainties in Bayesian inference
title_sort correlated uncertainties in bayesian inference
title_txtP Correlated uncertainties in Bayesian inference
topic dipole picture deep inelastic scattering correlated uncertainties Bayesian inference Teoreettinen fysiikka Theoretical Physics 4024 hiukkasfysiikka bayesilainen menetelmä Markovin ketjut fysiikka alkeishiukkaset mallintaminen kvanttiväridynamiikka epävarmuus particle physics Bayesian analysis Markov chains physics elementary particles modelling (representation) quantum chromodynamics uncertainty
topic_facet 4024 Bayesian analysis Bayesian inference Markov chains Markovin ketjut Teoreettinen fysiikka Theoretical Physics alkeishiukkaset bayesilainen menetelmä correlated uncertainties deep inelastic scattering dipole picture elementary particles epävarmuus fysiikka hiukkasfysiikka kvanttiväridynamiikka mallintaminen modelling (representation) particle physics physics quantum chromodynamics uncertainty
url https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/99785 http://www.urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:jyu-202501271546
work_keys_str_mv AT karhunenmikko correlateduncertaintiesinbayesianinference