The effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policies on the Euro area housing market

This master’s thesis focuses on the effects of conventional and unconventional mone-tary policies on Euro area housing markets. The financial crisis of 2008 originated from over-heated U.S housing markets, where the initial problems in the housing markets had tremendous spill-over effects on the who...

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Main Author: Zhang, Patric
Other Authors: Jyväskylän yliopiston kauppakorkeakoulu, Jyväskylä University School of Business and Economics, Jyväskylän yliopisto, University of Jyväskylä
Format: Master's thesis
Language:eng
Published: 2024
Subjects:
Online Access: https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/96281
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author Zhang, Patric
author2 Jyväskylän yliopiston kauppakorkeakoulu Jyväskylä University School of Business and Economics Jyväskylän yliopisto University of Jyväskylä
author_facet Zhang, Patric Jyväskylän yliopiston kauppakorkeakoulu Jyväskylä University School of Business and Economics Jyväskylän yliopisto University of Jyväskylä Zhang, Patric Jyväskylän yliopiston kauppakorkeakoulu Jyväskylä University School of Business and Economics Jyväskylän yliopisto University of Jyväskylä
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description This master’s thesis focuses on the effects of conventional and unconventional mone-tary policies on Euro area housing markets. The financial crisis of 2008 originated from over-heated U.S housing markets, where the initial problems in the housing markets had tremendous spill-over effects on the whole global economy. Housing accounts for over half of the Euro area household net worth (ECB, 2020b), and is usually acquired through bank debt financing, thus fluctuations in the Euro area housing prices can have contagious effects on the whole financial system. After the crisis, the key interest rates were near or below zero, and the European Cen-tral Bank (ECB) started its Quantitative Easing (QE) programs. The Euro area sovereign debt crisis also expanded the ECB’s balance sheet. Like Rosenberg (2020) and Elbourne et al. (2018), this expansionary monetary policy is defined as unconventional monetary policy in this paper, and conventional monetary policy is seen as changes in the short-term interest rate. This master’s thesis examines the impacts of traditional and unconventional monetary policy on European housing markets using a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model. This model has been applied to Euro area aggregate , Germany, and Italy. The findings of this study, which differ somewhat from previous research, suggest that the expansion of the ECB’s balance sheet does not significantly impact residential property prices in the Euro area. However, policy rate shocks appear to have a more persistent effect. These results have significant implications, indicating that conventional monetary poli-cy shocks may have a more enduring and potent effect on economic indicators than ex-pansionary unconventional monetary policy measures. Tässä pro gradu -tutkielmassa käydään läpi tavanomaisten ja epätavanomaisten rahapo-liittisten toimenpiteiden vaikutuksia Euroalueen asuntomarkkinoihin. Asuntovaralli-suus on yli puolet Euroalueen kotitalouksien nettovarallisuudesta (ECB, 2020b), ja sen rahoittamisiseen käytetään lähtökohtaisesti asuntolainoja. Näin ollen Euroalueen asun-tojen hintojen vaihtelu voi vaikuttaa koko Euroalueen rahoitusjärjestelmään. Finanssikriisin jälkeen ohjauskorot olivat hyvin lähellä nollaa, jopa negatiivisia. Tässä korkoympäristössä pelkillä korkojen laskemisella ei välttämättä ole toivottuja taloudelli-sia vaikutuksia. Täten Euroopan keskuspankki (EKP) aloitti määrällisen elvytyksen oh-jelmat. Finanssikriisin jälkeisten määrällisten elvytystoimien lisäksi myös Euroalueen velkakriisi kasvatti EKP:n taseen kokoa. Kuten Rosenberg (2020) ja Elbourne et al. (2018) osoittivat, myös tässä tutkielmassa epätavanomainen rahapolitiikka katsotaan olevan EKP:n ekspansiivinen rahapolitiikka. Sen sijaan tavanomaisen rahapolitiikan katsotaan olevan muutokset lyhyen aikavälin ohjauskoroissa. Tässä työssä ekspansiivisen rahapolitiikan ja lyhyen aikavälin korkojen vaikutuksia eu-roalueen asuntomarkkinoihin on analysoitu Vektoriautoregressiivisen (VAR) mallin avulla. Mallia on sovellettu Euroalueen aggregaatin, Saksan ja Italian asuntomarkkinoi-den osalta. Tämän tutkimuksen tulokset eroavat jonkin verran aiemmasta kirjallisuu-desta, ja tulokset viittaavat siihen, että EKP:n taseen laajentumisella ei ole tilastollisesti merkitsevää vaikutusta euroalueen asuntojen hintoihin. Sen sijaan ohjauskoron muu-tokset näyttävät vaikuttavan asuntojen hintoihin pysyvämmin. Nämä tulokset viittaavat siihen, että tavanomaisten rahapoliittisten toimien vaikutukset ovat pysyvämpiä ja voi-makkaampia taloudellisten indikaattorien suhteen, kuin epätavanomaisten rahapoliit-tisten toimenpiteiden vaikutukset. Jälkimmäinen tulos on yhteneväinen aikaisemman kirjallisuuden kanssa.
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spellingShingle Zhang, Patric The effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policies on the Euro area housing market Master's Degree Programme in Banking and International Finance
title The effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policies on the Euro area housing market
title_full The effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policies on the Euro area housing market
title_fullStr The effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policies on the Euro area housing market The effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policies on the Euro area housing market
title_full_unstemmed The effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policies on the Euro area housing market The effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policies on the Euro area housing market
title_short The effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policies on the Euro area housing market
title_sort effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policies on the euro area housing market
title_txtP The effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policies on the Euro area housing market
topic Master's Degree Programme in Banking and International Finance
topic_facet Master's Degree Programme in Banking and International Finance
url https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/96281 http://www.urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:jyu-202407025109
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