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[{"key": "dc.contributor.advisor", "value": "Tikka, Santtu", "language": "", "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "advisor", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.contributor.advisor", "value": "Helske, Jouni", "language": "", "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "advisor", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.contributor.advisor", "value": "Tervola, Jussi", "language": "", "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "advisor", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.contributor.author", "value": "Ritala, Annakaisa", "language": "", "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "author", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.date.accessioned", "value": "2024-06-20T10:28:14Z", "language": null, "element": "date", "qualifier": "accessioned", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.date.available", "value": "2024-06-20T10:28:14Z", "language": null, "element": "date", "qualifier": "available", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.date.issued", "value": "2024", "language": "", "element": "date", "qualifier": "issued", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.identifier.uri", "value": "https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/96076", "language": null, "element": "identifier", "qualifier": "uri", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.description.abstract", "value": "SISU-mikrosimulointimalli on keskeinen v\u00e4line sosiaaliturvaetuuksien ja tuloverotuksen lains\u00e4\u00e4d\u00e4nn\u00f6n valmistelussa Suomessa. Mikrosimulointi tarkoittaa, ett\u00e4 kiinnostuksen kohteena on laskea ennusteita havaintoyksik\u00f6ille, jotka SISU-mallin rekisteriaineistossa ovat yksil\u00f6 ja asuntokunta. SISU-mallilla voidaan simuloida lakimuutosten yhteisvaikutuksia sosiaaliturvaetuuksiin, mukaan lukien perustoimeentulotukeen. Toimeentulotuki on kuukaudelta my\u00f6nnett\u00e4v\u00e4 viimesijainen etuus, jonka tavoitteena on varmistaa perheen ihmisarvoisen el\u00e4m\u00e4n kannalta v\u00e4ltt\u00e4m\u00e4t\u00f6n toimeentulo. SISU-mallin perustoimeentulotuen ennusteissa on kuitenkin ep\u00e4tarkkuutta. T\u00e4m\u00e4n pro gradu -tutkielman tavoitteena oli tutkia voiko SISU-mikrosimulointimallin vuosittaisia toimeentulotuen ennusteita tarkentaa Bayes-tilastotieteen menetelmien avulla.\n\nSISU-mallin perustoimeentulotuen ennusteiden ep\u00e4tarkkuus syntyy mahdollisesti useista l\u00e4hteist\u00e4. Esimerkiksi SISU-mallin hy\u00f6dynt\u00e4m\u00e4n rekisteriaineiston muuttujat on kirjattu vuositasolla, vaikka toimeentulotuki my\u00f6nnet\u00e4\u00e4n kuukaudelta. Lis\u00e4ksi rekisteriaineistosta puuttuu toimeentulotuen suuruuden m\u00e4\u00e4ritykseen k\u00e4ytett\u00e4vi\u00e4 muuttujia, kuten terveysmenot ja varallisuus. My\u00f6s SISU-mallin oletus, ett\u00e4 kaikki toimeentulotukeen oikeutetut asuntokunnat hakisivat etuutta ei vastaa todellisuutta.\n\nTutkielmassa kehitettiin kaksiosainen malli, joka koostui kahdesta yleistetyst\u00e4 lineaarisesta mallista. Kaksiosaisen mallin rakenteen avulla voitiin yhdist\u00e4\u00e4 aineiston generoivan prosessin kaksi osaa. Ensimm\u00e4inen prosessi mallinsi todenn\u00e4k\u00f6isyytt\u00e4 saada toimeentulotukea ja toinen prosessi vuosittaista toimeentulotuen m\u00e4\u00e4r\u00e4\u00e4, ehdolla, ett\u00e4 asuntokunta saa toimeentulotukea. Ennusteiden simulointiin k\u00e4ytettiin Bayes-menetelmi\u00e4.\n\nKehitettyj\u00e4 kaksiosaisia malleja ja SISU-mallia vertailtiin luokitteluvirhett\u00e4 ja ennustetarkkuutta mittaavien tunnuslukujen suhteen. L\u00f6yd\u00f6sten perusteella kehitettyjen mallien toimeentulotuen saannin ja m\u00e4\u00e4r\u00e4n ennusteet olivat tarkempia kuin SISU-mallin, riippuen mit\u00e4 jakaumaa toimeentulotuen m\u00e4\u00e4r\u00e4n oletettiin noudattavan ja mink\u00e4laista luokittelurajaa k\u00e4ytettiin toimeentulotuen saannin ennustamiseen.\n\nTutkielma osoittaa, kuinka tilastollisen mallinnuksen avulla voidaan huomioida k\u00e4ytt\u00e4ytymiseen ja aineiston puutteisiin liittyv\u00e4\u00e4 ep\u00e4varmuutta toimeentulotuen ennustamisessa, ja kuinka mallinnuksen avulla on mahdollista saada tarkempia toimeentulotuen ennusteita kuin SISU-mallilla. Vaikka kehitettyihin malleihin ei sis\u00e4llytetty lakimuutosten vaikutusten simuloinnin mahdollistavaa mekanismia, ty\u00f6 syvent\u00e4\u00e4 k\u00e4sityst\u00e4 SISU-mallin kehityskohteista ja mikrosimuloinnin laajentamisesta tilastollisen mallinnuksen avulla.", "language": "fi", "element": "description", "qualifier": "abstract", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.description.provenance", "value": "Submitted by Miia Hakanen (mihakane@jyu.fi) on 2024-06-20T10:28:14Z\nNo. of bitstreams: 0", "language": "en", "element": "description", "qualifier": "provenance", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.description.provenance", "value": "Made available in DSpace on 2024-06-20T10:28:14Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0\n Previous issue date: 2024", "language": "en", "element": "description", "qualifier": "provenance", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.format.extent", "value": "66", "language": "", "element": "format", "qualifier": "extent", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.language.iso", "value": "eng", "language": null, "element": "language", "qualifier": "iso", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.rights", "value": "In Copyright", "language": "en", "element": "rights", "qualifier": null, "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.other", "value": "SISU microsimulation model", "language": "", "element": "subject", "qualifier": "other", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.other", "value": "Bayes", "language": "", "element": "subject", "qualifier": "other", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.other", "value": "two-part model", "language": "", "element": "subject", "qualifier": "other", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.title", "value": "A Bayesian two-part model for improving social assistance estimation of the SISU microsimulation model", "language": "", "element": "title", "qualifier": null, "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.type", "value": "master thesis", "language": null, "element": "type", "qualifier": null, "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.identifier.urn", "value": "URN:NBN:fi:jyu-202406204913", "language": null, "element": "identifier", "qualifier": "urn", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.type.ontasot", "value": "Master\u2019s thesis", "language": "en", "element": "type", "qualifier": "ontasot", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.type.ontasot", "value": "Pro gradu -tutkielma", "language": "fi", "element": "type", "qualifier": "ontasot", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.contributor.faculty", "value": "Matemaattis-luonnontieteellinen tiedekunta", "language": "fi", "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "faculty", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.contributor.faculty", "value": "Faculty of Sciences", "language": "en", "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "faculty", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.contributor.department", "value": "Matematiikan ja tilastotieteen laitos", "language": "fi", "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "department", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.contributor.department", "value": "Department of Mathematics and Statistics", "language": "en", "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "department", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.contributor.organization", "value": "Jyv\u00e4skyl\u00e4n yliopisto", "language": "fi", "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "organization", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.contributor.organization", "value": "University of Jyv\u00e4skyl\u00e4", "language": "en", "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "organization", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.discipline", "value": "Tilastotiede", "language": "fi", "element": "subject", "qualifier": "discipline", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.discipline", "value": "Statistics", "language": "en", "element": "subject", "qualifier": "discipline", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "yvv.contractresearch.collaborator", "value": "public", "language": "", "element": "contractresearch", "qualifier": "collaborator", "schema": "yvv"}, {"key": "yvv.contractresearch.funding", "value": "0", "language": "", "element": "contractresearch", "qualifier": "funding", "schema": "yvv"}, {"key": "dc.type.coar", "value": "http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_bdcc", "language": null, "element": "type", "qualifier": "coar", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.rights.accesslevel", "value": "openAccess", "language": null, "element": "rights", "qualifier": "accesslevel", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.type.publication", "value": "masterThesis", "language": null, "element": "type", "qualifier": "publication", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.oppiainekoodi", "value": "4043", "language": "", "element": "subject", "qualifier": "oppiainekoodi", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.yso", "value": "mikrosimulointi", "language": null, "element": "subject", "qualifier": "yso", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.yso", "value": "toimeentulotuki", "language": null, "element": "subject", "qualifier": "yso", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.yso", "value": "microsimulation", "language": null, "element": "subject", "qualifier": "yso", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.yso", "value": "social assistance", "language": null, "element": "subject", "qualifier": "yso", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.rights.url", "value": "https://rightsstatements.org/page/InC/1.0/", "language": null, "element": "rights", "qualifier": "url", "schema": "dc"}]
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