Dynamic interactions of commodities and policy uncertainty a VARX-ADCC-EGARCH approach

In this study, I focused on three essential food staples: wheat, corn, and rice. Unfortunately, food prices are unstable, which can cause troubles in different economies in different economic cycles. As price stability is vital for so many, this research sought ways of decreasing price instability....

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Kallio, Anssi
Other Authors: School of Business and Economics, Kauppakorkeakoulu, Business and Economics, Taloustieteet, University of Jyväskylä, Jyväskylän yliopisto
Format: Master's thesis
Language:eng
Published: 2023
Subjects:
Online Access: https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/92551
_version_ 1826225749848227840
author Kallio, Anssi
author2 School of Business and Economics Kauppakorkeakoulu Business and Economics Taloustieteet University of Jyväskylä Jyväskylän yliopisto
author_facet Kallio, Anssi School of Business and Economics Kauppakorkeakoulu Business and Economics Taloustieteet University of Jyväskylä Jyväskylän yliopisto Kallio, Anssi School of Business and Economics Kauppakorkeakoulu Business and Economics Taloustieteet University of Jyväskylä Jyväskylän yliopisto
author_sort Kallio, Anssi
datasource_str_mv jyx
description In this study, I focused on three essential food staples: wheat, corn, and rice. Unfortunately, food prices are unstable, which can cause troubles in different economies in different economic cycles. As price stability is vital for so many, this research sought ways of decreasing price instability. Financial models and analysis have developed new accounting methods for economic policy uncertainty. The study used the VARX-ADCC-EGARCH model to investigate the return and volatility relationships between the selected assets. The model included the uncertainty indexes as exogenous variables and acting as shocks outside the system. The primary research was done on daily data to see the changes and evolution of the relationship and the risks between the variables. A simple ARX model was used to analyze the impact of the policy uncertainty on wheat, corn, and rice. Because the VARX-ADCC-EGARCH model gave conditional covariances and conditional variances of the assets as results, these results were used to build a minimum variance portfolio. The results revealed that the S&P 500 CI leads the returns on food staples, and the copper and gold futures influence the returns of foods. Interestingly, corn interactions are overall more frequent than wheat, and silver futures returns influence wheat, but corn and rice influence silver futures. 21-day rolling average portfolios were all long positions on S&P 500 CI, but other than that, the optimal portfolios varied a lot from each other from period to period and reflected the changing risks and interactions between the selected assets.
first_indexed 2024-01-08T21:01:07Z
format Pro gradu
free_online_boolean 1
fullrecord [{"key": "dc.contributor.advisor", "value": "Lehkonen, Heikki", "language": null, "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "advisor", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.contributor.advisor", "value": "Junttila, Juha-Pekka", "language": null, "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "advisor", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.contributor.author", "value": "Kallio, Anssi", "language": "", "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "author", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.date.accessioned", "value": "2024-01-08T07:16:32Z", "language": null, "element": "date", "qualifier": "accessioned", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.date.available", "value": "2024-01-08T07:16:32Z", "language": null, "element": "date", "qualifier": "available", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.date.issued", "value": "2023", "language": null, "element": "date", "qualifier": "issued", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.identifier.uri", "value": "https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/92551", "language": null, "element": "identifier", "qualifier": "uri", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.description.abstract", "value": "In this study, I focused on three essential food staples: wheat, corn, and rice. Unfortunately, food prices are unstable, which can cause troubles in different economies in different economic cycles. As price stability is vital for so many, this research sought ways of decreasing price instability.\nFinancial models and analysis have developed new accounting methods for economic policy uncertainty. The study used the VARX-ADCC-EGARCH model to investigate the return and volatility relationships between the selected assets. The model included the uncertainty indexes as exogenous variables and acting as shocks outside the system. The primary research was done on daily data to see the changes and evolution of the relationship and the risks between the variables. A simple ARX model was used to analyze the impact of the policy uncertainty on wheat, corn, and rice.\nBecause the VARX-ADCC-EGARCH model gave conditional covariances and conditional variances of the assets as results, these results were used to build a minimum variance portfolio. The results revealed that the S&P 500 CI leads the returns on food staples, and the copper and gold futures influence the returns of foods. Interestingly, corn interactions are overall more frequent than wheat, and silver futures returns influence wheat, but corn and rice influence silver futures.\n21-day rolling average portfolios were all long positions on S&P 500 CI, but other than that, the optimal portfolios varied a lot from each other from period to period and reflected the changing risks and interactions between the selected assets.", "language": "en", "element": "description", "qualifier": "abstract", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.description.provenance", "value": "Submitted by Paivi Vuorio (paelvuor@jyu.fi) on 2024-01-08T07:16:32Z\nNo. of bitstreams: 0", "language": "en", "element": "description", "qualifier": "provenance", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.description.provenance", "value": "Made available in DSpace on 2024-01-08T07:16:32Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0\n Previous issue date: 2023", "language": "en", "element": "description", "qualifier": "provenance", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.format.extent", "value": "91", "language": "", "element": "format", "qualifier": "extent", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.language.iso", "value": "eng", "language": null, "element": "language", "qualifier": "iso", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.rights", "value": "In Copyright", "language": "en", "element": "rights", "qualifier": null, "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.other", "value": "dynamic conditional correlation", "language": "", "element": "subject", "qualifier": "other", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.other", "value": "dynamic hedging", "language": "", "element": "subject", "qualifier": "other", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.other", "value": "agricultural commodities", "language": "", "element": "subject", "qualifier": "other", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.other", "value": "multi-variate GARCH", "language": "", "element": "subject", "qualifier": "other", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.other", "value": "minimum variance portfolio", "language": "", "element": "subject", "qualifier": "other", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.other", "value": "policy uncertainty", "language": "", "element": "subject", "qualifier": "other", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.title", "value": "Dynamic interactions of commodities and policy uncertainty : a VARX-ADCC-EGARCH approach", "language": "", "element": "title", "qualifier": null, "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.type", "value": "master thesis", "language": null, "element": "type", "qualifier": null, "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.identifier.urn", "value": "URN:NBN:fi:jyu-202401081054", "language": null, "element": "identifier", "qualifier": "urn", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.type.ontasot", "value": "Master\u2019s thesis", "language": "en", "element": "type", "qualifier": "ontasot", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.type.ontasot", "value": "Pro gradu -tutkielma", "language": "fi", "element": "type", "qualifier": "ontasot", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.contributor.faculty", "value": "Jyv\u00e4skyl\u00e4 University School of Business and Economics", "language": "en", "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "faculty", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.contributor.faculty", "value": "Jyv\u00e4skyl\u00e4n yliopiston kauppakorkeakoulu", "language": "fi", "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "faculty", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.contributor.department", "value": "Business and Economics", "language": "en", "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "department", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.contributor.department", "value": "Taloustieteet", "language": "fi", "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "department", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.contributor.organization", "value": "University of Jyv\u00e4skyl\u00e4", "language": "en", "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "organization", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.contributor.organization", "value": "Jyv\u00e4skyl\u00e4n yliopisto", "language": "fi", "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "organization", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.discipline", "value": "Economics", "language": "en", "element": "subject", "qualifier": "discipline", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.discipline", "value": "Taloustiede", "language": "fi", "element": "subject", "qualifier": "discipline", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "yvv.contractresearch.funding", "value": "0", "language": "", "element": "contractresearch", "qualifier": "funding", "schema": "yvv"}, {"key": "dc.type.coar", "value": "http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_bdcc", "language": null, "element": "type", "qualifier": "coar", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.rights.copyright", "value": "\u00a9 The Author(s)", "language": null, "element": "rights", "qualifier": "copyright", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.rights.accesslevel", "value": "openAccess", "language": null, "element": "rights", "qualifier": "accesslevel", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.type.publication", "value": "masterThesis", "language": null, "element": "type", "qualifier": "publication", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.oppiainekoodi", "value": "2041", "language": null, "element": "subject", "qualifier": "oppiainekoodi", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.yso", "value": "elintarvikkeet", "language": null, "element": "subject", "qualifier": "yso", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.yso", "value": "hinnat", "language": null, "element": "subject", "qualifier": "yso", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.yso", "value": "foodstuffs", "language": null, "element": "subject", "qualifier": "yso", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.yso", "value": "prices", "language": null, "element": "subject", "qualifier": "yso", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.rights.url", "value": "https://rightsstatements.org/page/InC/1.0/", "language": null, "element": "rights", "qualifier": "url", "schema": "dc"}]
id jyx.123456789_92551
language eng
last_indexed 2025-02-18T10:55:49Z
main_date 2023-01-01T00:00:00Z
main_date_str 2023
online_boolean 1
online_urls_str_mv {"url":"https:\/\/jyx.jyu.fi\/bitstreams\/5a48bc64-249a-496a-aee6-7bdcc5db3e2d\/download","text":"URN:NBN:fi:jyu-202401081054.pdf","source":"jyx","mediaType":"application\/pdf"}
publishDate 2023
record_format qdc
source_str_mv jyx
spellingShingle Kallio, Anssi Dynamic interactions of commodities and policy uncertainty : a VARX-ADCC-EGARCH approach dynamic conditional correlation dynamic hedging agricultural commodities multi-variate GARCH minimum variance portfolio policy uncertainty Economics Taloustiede 2041 elintarvikkeet hinnat foodstuffs prices
title Dynamic interactions of commodities and policy uncertainty : a VARX-ADCC-EGARCH approach
title_full Dynamic interactions of commodities and policy uncertainty : a VARX-ADCC-EGARCH approach
title_fullStr Dynamic interactions of commodities and policy uncertainty : a VARX-ADCC-EGARCH approach Dynamic interactions of commodities and policy uncertainty : a VARX-ADCC-EGARCH approach
title_full_unstemmed Dynamic interactions of commodities and policy uncertainty : a VARX-ADCC-EGARCH approach Dynamic interactions of commodities and policy uncertainty : a VARX-ADCC-EGARCH approach
title_short Dynamic interactions of commodities and policy uncertainty
title_sort dynamic interactions of commodities and policy uncertainty a varx adcc egarch approach
title_sub a VARX-ADCC-EGARCH approach
title_txtP Dynamic interactions of commodities and policy uncertainty : a VARX-ADCC-EGARCH approach
topic dynamic conditional correlation dynamic hedging agricultural commodities multi-variate GARCH minimum variance portfolio policy uncertainty Economics Taloustiede 2041 elintarvikkeet hinnat foodstuffs prices
topic_facet 2041 Economics Taloustiede agricultural commodities dynamic conditional correlation dynamic hedging elintarvikkeet foodstuffs hinnat minimum variance portfolio multi-variate GARCH policy uncertainty prices
url https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/92551 http://www.urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:jyu-202401081054
work_keys_str_mv AT kallioanssi dynamicinteractionsofcommoditiesandpolicyuncertaintyavarxadccegarchapproach