Terror attacks and exchange rates empirical evidence from developed and emerging countries

Terrorism and terror attacks form a rising threat to the economy and financial markets, while the research area related to terrorism and foreign exchange markets still remain limited. Investigating terror attacks and exchange rates is essential due to the fundamental position of exchange rates in ev...

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Päätekijä: Jauhiainen, Oona
Muut tekijät: Kauppakorkeakoulu, School of Business and Economics, Taloustieteet, Business and Economics, Jyväskylän yliopisto, University of Jyväskylä
Aineistotyyppi: Pro gradu
Kieli:eng
Julkaistu: 2023
Aiheet:
Linkit: https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/86733
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author Jauhiainen, Oona
author2 Kauppakorkeakoulu School of Business and Economics Taloustieteet Business and Economics Jyväskylän yliopisto University of Jyväskylä
author_facet Jauhiainen, Oona Kauppakorkeakoulu School of Business and Economics Taloustieteet Business and Economics Jyväskylän yliopisto University of Jyväskylä Jauhiainen, Oona Kauppakorkeakoulu School of Business and Economics Taloustieteet Business and Economics Jyväskylän yliopisto University of Jyväskylä
author_sort Jauhiainen, Oona
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description Terrorism and terror attacks form a rising threat to the economy and financial markets, while the research area related to terrorism and foreign exchange markets still remain limited. Investigating terror attacks and exchange rates is essential due to the fundamental position of exchange rates in every international trade. In addition, exchange rates play an important part in pricing international financial instruments, such as derivatives. The aim of this thesis is to investigate the relationship between terrorism and exchange rates from three different viewpoints: geopolitical risk in terms of terrorism and its effect to uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) deviation, cumulative abnormal returns (CAR), and explanatory variables of CAR. By investigating terror attacks, geopolitical risk indices, and a set of exchange rates with linear regression models and event study methodology, this thesis shows that terrorism can cause different effects among developed and emerging countries. In addition, the empirical results indicate that currency pairs from emerging countries are generally more affected by terror attacks causing statistically significant results. Furthermore, the results show that an increase in geopolitical risk leads to a significant increase in UIP deviation as well as local currency risk premiums among selected emerging countries. This thesis obtains new evidence of how UIP deviation is affected by geopolitical tensions in terms of terrorism in emerging countries. Information can be valuable for investors and other market participants. In addition, the results highlight that also in the future terrorism will play an important part in geopolitical risks that should be considered when making financial decisions.
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Investigating terror attacks and exchange rates is essential due to the fundamental position of exchange rates in every international trade. In addition, exchange rates play an important part in pricing international financial instruments, such as derivatives. The aim of this thesis is to investigate the relationship between terrorism and exchange rates from three different viewpoints: geopolitical risk in terms of terrorism and its effect to uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) deviation, cumulative abnormal returns (CAR), and explanatory variables of CAR.\n \nBy investigating terror attacks, geopolitical risk indices, and a set of exchange rates with linear regression models and event study methodology, this thesis shows that terrorism can cause different effects among developed and emerging countries. In addition, the empirical results indicate that currency pairs from emerging countries are generally more affected by terror attacks causing statistically significant results. 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spellingShingle Jauhiainen, Oona Terror attacks and exchange rates : empirical evidence from developed and emerging countries exchange rate BRICS geopolitical risk index UIP Taloustiede Economics 2041 kehittyneet maat terrori-iskut valuuttakurssit developed countries terror attacks rates of exchange
title Terror attacks and exchange rates : empirical evidence from developed and emerging countries
title_full Terror attacks and exchange rates : empirical evidence from developed and emerging countries
title_fullStr Terror attacks and exchange rates : empirical evidence from developed and emerging countries Terror attacks and exchange rates : empirical evidence from developed and emerging countries
title_full_unstemmed Terror attacks and exchange rates : empirical evidence from developed and emerging countries Terror attacks and exchange rates : empirical evidence from developed and emerging countries
title_short Terror attacks and exchange rates
title_sort terror attacks and exchange rates empirical evidence from developed and emerging countries
title_sub empirical evidence from developed and emerging countries
title_txtP Terror attacks and exchange rates : empirical evidence from developed and emerging countries
topic exchange rate BRICS geopolitical risk index UIP Taloustiede Economics 2041 kehittyneet maat terrori-iskut valuuttakurssit developed countries terror attacks rates of exchange
topic_facet 2041 BRICS Economics Taloustiede UIP developed countries exchange rate geopolitical risk index kehittyneet maat rates of exchange terror attacks terrori-iskut valuuttakurssit
url https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/86733 http://www.urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:jyu-202305032828
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