Stock market effects of unconventional monetary policy

While the existing academic literature has demonstrated the positive effects of unconventional monetary policy on the real economy and financial markets, its primary focus has been on the early post-global financial crisis period. This thesis aims to contribute to the literature by using more recent...

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Main Author: Salmela, Aapo
Other Authors: Kauppakorkeakoulu, School of Business and Economics, Taloustieteet, Business and Economics, Jyväskylän yliopisto, University of Jyväskylä
Format: Master's thesis
Language:eng
Published: 2023
Subjects:
Online Access: https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/86324
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author Salmela, Aapo
author2 Kauppakorkeakoulu School of Business and Economics Taloustieteet Business and Economics Jyväskylän yliopisto University of Jyväskylä
author_facet Salmela, Aapo Kauppakorkeakoulu School of Business and Economics Taloustieteet Business and Economics Jyväskylän yliopisto University of Jyväskylä Salmela, Aapo Kauppakorkeakoulu School of Business and Economics Taloustieteet Business and Economics Jyväskylän yliopisto University of Jyväskylä
author_sort Salmela, Aapo
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description While the existing academic literature has demonstrated the positive effects of unconventional monetary policy on the real economy and financial markets, its primary focus has been on the early post-global financial crisis period. This thesis aims to contribute to the literature by using more recent data sample from 2004 to 2021, including also the COVID-19 period. In this thesis, I examine the effects of unconventional monetary policy on stock market valuations and the real economy. To account for the dynamic relationship between rare disaster risk and unconventional monetary policy, an important factor highlighted in previous literature, I incorporate rare disaster risk proxied by implied volatility into the analysis. I use the structural VAR model with sign restrictions to uncover the dynamic causal relationships between the variables. The results indicate that an exogenous unconventional monetary policy shock has a positive and persistent effect on stock market valuations in the euro area and in the US, as well as a positive and persistent effect on the ex-ante growth rate in the euro area and a positive and transient effect in the US. Furthermore, an exogenous implied volatility shock leads to a negative and persistent effect on stock market valuation and ex-ante growth in both regions. Importantly, the findings suggest that the central banks should refrain from adjusting their monetary policy in response to a negative shock to stock market valuations.
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spellingShingle Salmela, Aapo Stock market effects of unconventional monetary policy unconventional monetary policy rare disaster risk stock market structural vector autoregressive model Taloustiede Economics 2041 rahapolitiikka rahoitusmarkkinat monetary policy financial markets
title Stock market effects of unconventional monetary policy
title_full Stock market effects of unconventional monetary policy
title_fullStr Stock market effects of unconventional monetary policy Stock market effects of unconventional monetary policy
title_full_unstemmed Stock market effects of unconventional monetary policy Stock market effects of unconventional monetary policy
title_short Stock market effects of unconventional monetary policy
title_sort stock market effects of unconventional monetary policy
title_txtP Stock market effects of unconventional monetary policy
topic unconventional monetary policy rare disaster risk stock market structural vector autoregressive model Taloustiede Economics 2041 rahapolitiikka rahoitusmarkkinat monetary policy financial markets
topic_facet 2041 Economics Taloustiede financial markets monetary policy rahapolitiikka rahoitusmarkkinat rare disaster risk stock market structural vector autoregressive model unconventional monetary policy
url https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/86324 http://www.urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:jyu-202304132452
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