The impact of media tone on dollar exchange rate volatility GARCH applications

Using several million news and social media articles related to US dollar, I examine the role of Media tone in predicting daily dollar exchange rate returns from 1998 to 2021. In this study, I use GARCH specifications to explore the relationship between currency Media tone and dollar exchange rate v...

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Bibliografiset tiedot
Päätekijä: Kulagina, Alexandra
Muut tekijät: Kauppakorkeakoulu, School of Business and Economics, Taloustieteet, Business and Economics, Jyväskylän yliopisto, University of Jyväskylä
Aineistotyyppi: Pro gradu
Kieli:eng
Julkaistu: 2021
Aiheet:
Linkit: https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/76683
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author Kulagina, Alexandra
author2 Kauppakorkeakoulu School of Business and Economics Taloustieteet Business and Economics Jyväskylän yliopisto University of Jyväskylä
author_facet Kulagina, Alexandra Kauppakorkeakoulu School of Business and Economics Taloustieteet Business and Economics Jyväskylän yliopisto University of Jyväskylä Kulagina, Alexandra Kauppakorkeakoulu School of Business and Economics Taloustieteet Business and Economics Jyväskylän yliopisto University of Jyväskylä
author_sort Kulagina, Alexandra
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description Using several million news and social media articles related to US dollar, I examine the role of Media tone in predicting daily dollar exchange rate returns from 1998 to 2021. In this study, I use GARCH specifications to explore the relationship between currency Media tone and dollar exchange rate volatility. I include currency Media tone as an external regressor into both mean and variance equations of different specifications following the significance and sign of the causal relationship. The results reveal that the impact of currency Media tone to be time-dependent, source-dependent, statistically significant but economically insignificant. The inclusion of the currency Media tone into the variance equation of the GARCH specification increases the explanatory power of the model from 10,43% to 10,85%. The sign of the impact has been varying from specification to specification, however in most cases the sign of the coefficient for currency Media tone was positive in the mean equation and negative in the variance equation. This means that information about US dollar increases the dollar exchange rate returns but decreases the exchange rate volatility.
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spellingShingle Kulagina, Alexandra The impact of media tone on dollar exchange rate volatility : GARCH applications media tone Taloustiede Economics 2041 volatiliteetti uutiset GARCH-mallit sosiaalinen media valuutat ekonometria valuuttamarkkinat rahoitusmarkkinat valuuttakurssimekanismi volatility (societal properties) news GARCH models social media currency econometrics foreign exchange market financial markets exchange rate mechanism
title The impact of media tone on dollar exchange rate volatility : GARCH applications
title_full The impact of media tone on dollar exchange rate volatility : GARCH applications
title_fullStr The impact of media tone on dollar exchange rate volatility : GARCH applications The impact of media tone on dollar exchange rate volatility : GARCH applications
title_full_unstemmed The impact of media tone on dollar exchange rate volatility : GARCH applications The impact of media tone on dollar exchange rate volatility : GARCH applications
title_short The impact of media tone on dollar exchange rate volatility
title_sort impact of media tone on dollar exchange rate volatility garch applications
title_sub GARCH applications
title_txtP The impact of media tone on dollar exchange rate volatility : GARCH applications
topic media tone Taloustiede Economics 2041 volatiliteetti uutiset GARCH-mallit sosiaalinen media valuutat ekonometria valuuttamarkkinat rahoitusmarkkinat valuuttakurssimekanismi volatility (societal properties) news GARCH models social media currency econometrics foreign exchange market financial markets exchange rate mechanism
topic_facet 2041 Economics GARCH models GARCH-mallit Taloustiede currency econometrics ekonometria exchange rate mechanism financial markets foreign exchange market media tone news rahoitusmarkkinat social media sosiaalinen media uutiset valuutat valuuttakurssimekanismi valuuttamarkkinat volatiliteetti volatility (societal properties)
url https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/76683 http://www.urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:jyu-202106183879
work_keys_str_mv AT kulaginaalexandra impactofmediatoneondollarexchangeratevolatilitygarchapplications AT kulaginaalexandra theimpactofmediatoneondollarexchangeratevolatilitygarchapplications