Population aging and public economy in OECD countries

Tässä tutkielmassa tarkastellaan, millaisia vaikutuksia väestön ikääntymisellä on valtion eläkemenoihin ja velkaantumiseen. Julkisen eläkejärjestelmän rahoittaminen on herättänyt huolta useassa teollisuusmaissa, kun suuret ikäluokat ovat alkaneet siirtyä eläkkeelle. Samaan aikaan syntyvyys on pysyny...

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Päätekijä: Heinänen, Eveliina
Muut tekijät: Jyväskylä University School of Business and Economics, Jyväskylän yliopiston kauppakorkeakoulu, Taloustieteet, Business and Economics, Jyväskylän yliopisto, University of Jyväskylä
Aineistotyyppi: Pro gradu
Kieli:eng
Julkaistu: 2020
Aiheet:
Linkit: https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/73239
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author Heinänen, Eveliina
author2 Jyväskylä University School of Business and Economics Jyväskylän yliopiston kauppakorkeakoulu Taloustieteet Business and Economics Jyväskylän yliopisto University of Jyväskylä
author_facet Heinänen, Eveliina Jyväskylä University School of Business and Economics Jyväskylän yliopiston kauppakorkeakoulu Taloustieteet Business and Economics Jyväskylän yliopisto University of Jyväskylä Heinänen, Eveliina Jyväskylä University School of Business and Economics Jyväskylän yliopiston kauppakorkeakoulu Taloustieteet Business and Economics Jyväskylän yliopisto University of Jyväskylä
author_sort Heinänen, Eveliina
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description Tässä tutkielmassa tarkastellaan, millaisia vaikutuksia väestön ikääntymisellä on valtion eläkemenoihin ja velkaantumiseen. Julkisen eläkejärjestelmän rahoittaminen on herättänyt huolta useassa teollisuusmaissa, kun suuret ikäluokat ovat alkaneet siirtyä eläkkeelle. Samaan aikaan syntyvyys on pysynyt matalalla tasolla, kun taas elinajanodote jatkaa nousuaan. Aiemmassa kirjallisuudessa on perusteltu tarvetta julkisen eläkejärjestelmän uudistuksille, jotta eläkejärjestelmän rahoitus olisi kestävällä pohjalla väestön ikääntyessä. Tutkielman empiirisessä osassa tarkastellaan, kuinka työikäiseen väestöön verrattuna yli 64-vuotiaiden osuuden muutos on vaikuttanut julkisiin eläkemenoihin ja valtion velkaan 22 OECD maassa vuosina 1985-2018. Koska työmarkkinoilla on ollut merkittävä vaikutus eläkejärjestelmien rakenteeseen ja uudistustarpeisiin, tutkimuksessa tarkastellaan myös työttömyyden suoraa yhteyttä valtion talouteen. Tulosten perusteella ikääntyvällä väestöllä on vaikutusta valtion velkaantumiseen. Eläkemenoissa positiivinen vaikutus ei ole tilastollisesti merkittävä kyseisellä aikaperiodilla. 22 OECD maan aineistoon kuuluva Japani on poikkeuksellinen maa, koska maassa yli 64-vuotiaiden suhteellinen osuus työikäisiin verrattuna on suuri ja valtion velka on korkealla tasolla suhteessa muihin teollisuusmaihin. Maan poistaminen aineistosta heikentää ikääntyvän väestön vaikutusta valtion velkaan eikä vaikutus ole tilastollisesti merkitsevä jäljelle jääville teollisuusmaille. Lisäksi muiden maiden kuin Japanin osalta ikääntyneellä väestöllä näyttää olevan positiivinen vaikutus eläkemenoihin. Työttömyys vaikuttaa myös positiivisesti ja tilastollisesti merkittävästi eläkemenoihin näissä maissa. Tutkielma osoittaa, että julkisen eläkejärjestelmän uudistamista tulee harkita maakohtaisesti. Osassa OECD maista väestön ikääntymisellä on yhteys eläkemenojen kasvuun. Kuten aiempi empiirinen tutkimus ja ennusteet demografisesta muutoksesta osoittavat, tällä hetkellä ikääntyvän väestön vaikutus julkisen talouden kestävyyteen ei ole niin merkittävä kuin se saattavat olla tulevaisuudessa. This thesis considers effects of population aging on pension expenditures and public debt. Large generations are retiring while fertility rate has remained at low level and life expectancy is rising, which will concern the sustainability of public finances. Earlier empirical research has been argued that public pension systems might need reforms in order to finance the pension expenditures sustainably in the future. In empirical research I consider the effects of the population aging on the government pension expenditures and the public debt in 22 OECD countries from 1985 to 2018. The empirical methodology used in this thesis is the general methods of moments (GMM). Results show that the old age dependency ratio has a positive and statistically significant effect on the public debt. When Japan is excluded from the data, results are no longer statistically significant. Japan seems to be exceptional country due to its high old age dependency ratio and high debt level. In the case of pension expenditures, it seems that in other OECD countries than Japan the effect of older age structure is positive and significant on the pension expenditures. Unemployment also has a positive and statistically significant effect on the pension expenditures. The population aging seems to have some effects on the pension expenditures in developed countries. Thesis emphasizes that reforms of the public pension system should be considered for every country individually.
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Julkisen el\u00e4kej\u00e4rjestelm\u00e4n rahoittaminen on her\u00e4tt\u00e4nyt huolta useassa teollisuusmaissa, kun suuret ik\u00e4luokat ovat alkaneet siirty\u00e4 el\u00e4kkeelle. Samaan aikaan syntyvyys on pysynyt matalalla tasolla, kun taas elinajanodote jatkaa nousuaan. Aiemmassa kirjallisuudessa on perusteltu tarvetta julkisen el\u00e4kej\u00e4rjestelm\u00e4n uudistuksille, jotta el\u00e4kej\u00e4rjestelm\u00e4n rahoitus olisi kest\u00e4v\u00e4ll\u00e4 pohjalla v\u00e4est\u00f6n ik\u00e4\u00e4ntyess\u00e4. \n\nTutkielman empiirisess\u00e4 osassa tarkastellaan, kuinka ty\u00f6ik\u00e4iseen v\u00e4est\u00f6\u00f6n verrattuna yli 64-vuotiaiden osuuden muutos on vaikuttanut julkisiin el\u00e4kemenoihin ja valtion velkaan 22 OECD maassa vuosina 1985-2018. Koska ty\u00f6markkinoilla on ollut merkitt\u00e4v\u00e4 vaikutus el\u00e4kej\u00e4rjestelmien rakenteeseen ja uudistustarpeisiin, tutkimuksessa tarkastellaan my\u00f6s ty\u00f6tt\u00f6myyden suoraa yhteytt\u00e4 valtion talouteen. \n\nTulosten perusteella ik\u00e4\u00e4ntyv\u00e4ll\u00e4 v\u00e4est\u00f6ll\u00e4 on vaikutusta valtion velkaantumiseen. El\u00e4kemenoissa positiivinen vaikutus ei ole tilastollisesti merkitt\u00e4v\u00e4 kyseisell\u00e4 aikaperiodilla. 22 OECD maan aineistoon kuuluva Japani on poikkeuksellinen maa, koska maassa yli 64-vuotiaiden suhteellinen osuus ty\u00f6ik\u00e4isiin verrattuna on suuri ja valtion velka on korkealla tasolla suhteessa muihin teollisuusmaihin. Maan poistaminen aineistosta heikent\u00e4\u00e4 ik\u00e4\u00e4ntyv\u00e4n v\u00e4est\u00f6n vaikutusta valtion velkaan eik\u00e4 vaikutus ole tilastollisesti merkitsev\u00e4 j\u00e4ljelle j\u00e4\u00e4ville teollisuusmaille. 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spellingShingle Heinänen, Eveliina Population aging and public economy in OECD countries population aging public pension system pension expenditures Taloustiede Economics 2041 julkinen talous ikääntyminen eläkkeet OECD-maat julkinen velka public finances ageing pensions OECD countries public debt
title Population aging and public economy in OECD countries
title_full Population aging and public economy in OECD countries
title_fullStr Population aging and public economy in OECD countries Population aging and public economy in OECD countries
title_full_unstemmed Population aging and public economy in OECD countries Population aging and public economy in OECD countries
title_short Population aging and public economy in OECD countries
title_sort population aging and public economy in oecd countries
title_txtP Population aging and public economy in OECD countries
topic population aging public pension system pension expenditures Taloustiede Economics 2041 julkinen talous ikääntyminen eläkkeet OECD-maat julkinen velka public finances ageing pensions OECD countries public debt
topic_facet 2041 Economics OECD countries OECD-maat Taloustiede ageing eläkkeet ikääntyminen julkinen talous julkinen velka pension expenditures pensions population aging public debt public finances public pension system
url https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/73239 http://www.urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:jyu-202012167184
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