Hedging commercial real estate price risk evidence from U.S. real estate market

Tämä maisterin tutkielma keskittyy suorien toimitilakiinteistösijoitusten hintariskiltä suojautumiseen. Motivaatio tutkimusaiheeseen kumpuaa prime-kiinteistöjen pääoma-arvojen pitkään jatkuneesta noususta ja historiallisen alhaisista tuottovaatimustasoista. Aihe on erityisen mielenkiintoinen avointe...

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Main Author: Jokinen, Valtteri
Other Authors: Kauppakorkeakoulu, School of Business and Economics, Taloustieteet, Business and Economics, Jyväskylän yliopisto, University of Jyväskylä
Format: Master's thesis
Language:eng
Published: 2020
Subjects:
Online Access: https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/71386
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author Jokinen, Valtteri
author2 Kauppakorkeakoulu School of Business and Economics Taloustieteet Business and Economics Jyväskylän yliopisto University of Jyväskylä
author_facet Jokinen, Valtteri Kauppakorkeakoulu School of Business and Economics Taloustieteet Business and Economics Jyväskylän yliopisto University of Jyväskylä Jokinen, Valtteri Kauppakorkeakoulu School of Business and Economics Taloustieteet Business and Economics Jyväskylän yliopisto University of Jyväskylä
author_sort Jokinen, Valtteri
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description Tämä maisterin tutkielma keskittyy suorien toimitilakiinteistösijoitusten hintariskiltä suojautumiseen. Motivaatio tutkimusaiheeseen kumpuaa prime-kiinteistöjen pääoma-arvojen pitkään jatkuneesta noususta ja historiallisen alhaisista tuottovaatimustasoista. Aihe on erityisen mielenkiintoinen avointen kiinteistörahastojen kannalta, jotka voivat olla rajujen makrotaloudellisten shokkien aikana pakotettuja joko myymään kiinteistösijoituksiaan nopeutetussa aikataulussa tai keskeyttämään lunastukset. Tutkielma vastaa seuraavaan tutkimuskysymykseen: Voivatko Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index indeksiin ja VIX indeksiin perustuvat johdannaiset toimia tehokkaina ja hyödyllisinä suojina suorien toimitilakiinteistösijoitusten voimakkaille negatiiviselle arvonmuutoksille? Kysymykseen vastaaminen edellyttää suoriin kiinteistösijoituksiin liittyvien erityispiirteiden ja rajoitteiden ymmärtämistä, joista merkittävimmät ovat pitkä transaktioaika, lyhyeksi myynnin rajoitteet ja korkeat transaktiokustannukset. Suorien kiinteistösijoitusten hintariskin lieventämiseksi sijoittajan tulisi harkita portable alpha strategian kaltaista menetelmää, joka käsittää sijoituskohteiden aktiivisen manageroinnin ja samanaikaisesti makrotalouden shokeilta suojautumisen. Tutkielman aineisto käsittää neljännesvuosittaiset aikasarjat VIX ja DJUSRE indekseistä sekä viidestä suorien kiinteistösijoitusten suorituskykyä mittaavasta yhdysvaltalaisesta indeksistä. Tutkimusperiodi sisältää 111 kvartaalia vuoden 1991 neljännestä kvartaalista vuoden 2019 kolmanteen kvartaaliin. Tutkielman empiirisessä osiossa estimoidaan dynaamiset ehdolliset volatiliteetit GJR-GARCH-mallilla sekä dynaamiset ehdolliset korrelaatiot DCC-mallilla. Estimoiduista volatiliteeteista ja korrelaatioista johdetaan tämän jälkeen dynaamiset optimaaliset suojausasteet. Tulosteni perusteella esitän, että lyhyt positio DJUSRE indeksiin voi toimia hyödyllisenä ja tehokkaana suojana yhdysvaltalaisien suorien toimitilakiinteistöjen hintariskiä vastaan. Tulokset indikoivat, että DJUSRE indeksillä suojautuminen olisi vähentänyt yhdysvaltalaisten suorien kiinteistöportfolioiden arvonlaskua globaalin finanssikriisin aikana verrattuna suojaamattomaan positioon. Toisin kuin DJUSRE indeksin kohdalla, havaitsen että VIX indeksin tehokkuus suorien kiinteistösijoitusten suojaukseen on olematon. Näin ollen VIX indeksiä ei voi pitää hyödyllisenä eikä tehokkaana suojana suorien toimitilakiinteistösijoitusten negatiivisia arvonmuutoksia vastaan. This master’s thesis focuses on the management of price risk involved in direct commercial real estate investments. The motivation for the topic originates from the long-lasting appreciation in capital values of prime real estate assets and their historic low cap rate levels. The topic is especially interesting for open-ended real estate funds, which may be forced to either fire sale their real estate holdings or suspend redemptions during severe macroeconomic shocks. This master’s thesis answers to the following research question: Can derivatives based on Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index, i.e., DJUSRE and derivatives written on implied volatility index, i.e., VIX be effective and useful hedges against severe negative price movements of direct commercial real estate investments in the U.S.? To answer the question, it is crucial to understand the special characteristics and frictions that are involved in direct real estate assets of which the most notable are long transaction time, short sale constraint, and high transaction costs. To mitigate the price risk of a direct real estate investment, an investor should consider an approach similar to portable alpha strategy which consists of active asset management while protecting oneself against macroeconomic shocks. The data used in this thesis includes quarterly time series on VIX and DJUSRE, and five indices that measure the performance of direct real estate investments in the U.S. The sample period comprises 111 quarters from Q4 1991 to Q3 2019. The empirical section of this thesis employs GJR-GARCH model to estimate dynamic conditional volatilities and DCC model to estimate dynamic conditional correlations. Estimated dynamic volatilities and correlations are then utilised to derive dynamic optimal hedge ratios. On the grounds of my findings, I argue that a short position on DJUSRE can serve as a useful and effective hedge against the price risk of U.S. commercial real estate investments. The results indicate that hedging with DJUSRE would have decreased the price deterioration of U.S. direct real estate portfolios during the global financial crisis when compared to an unhedged position. Contrary to DJUSRE, I find that the hedging effectiveness of VIX against direct real estate exposure is trivial. Thus, I conclude that VIX cannot be considered as useful nor effective hedge against adverse price movements of direct commercial real estate investments.
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spellingShingle Jokinen, Valtteri Hedging commercial real estate price risk : evidence from U.S. real estate market real estate dynamic optimal hedge ratio hedging effectiveness dynamic conditional correlation GJR-GARCH Taloustiede Economics 2041 kiinteistösijoittaminen volatiliteetti riskienhallinta real estate investment risk management
title Hedging commercial real estate price risk : evidence from U.S. real estate market
title_full Hedging commercial real estate price risk : evidence from U.S. real estate market
title_fullStr Hedging commercial real estate price risk : evidence from U.S. real estate market Hedging commercial real estate price risk : evidence from U.S. real estate market
title_full_unstemmed Hedging commercial real estate price risk : evidence from U.S. real estate market Hedging commercial real estate price risk : evidence from U.S. real estate market
title_short Hedging commercial real estate price risk
title_sort hedging commercial real estate price risk evidence from u s real estate market
title_sub evidence from U.S. real estate market
title_txtP Hedging commercial real estate price risk : evidence from U.S. real estate market
topic real estate dynamic optimal hedge ratio hedging effectiveness dynamic conditional correlation GJR-GARCH Taloustiede Economics 2041 kiinteistösijoittaminen volatiliteetti riskienhallinta real estate investment risk management
topic_facet 2041 Economics GJR-GARCH Taloustiede dynamic conditional correlation dynamic optimal hedge ratio hedging effectiveness kiinteistösijoittaminen real estate real estate investment risk management riskienhallinta volatiliteetti
url https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/71386 http://www.urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:jyu-202008125526
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