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[{"key": "dc.contributor.advisor", "value": "Karvanen, Juha", "language": "", "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "advisor", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.contributor.author", "value": "Pellinen, Jani", "language": "", "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "author", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.date.accessioned", "value": "2019-02-25T11:01:10Z", "language": null, "element": "date", "qualifier": "accessioned", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.date.available", "value": "2019-02-25T11:01:10Z", "language": null, "element": "date", "qualifier": "available", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.date.issued", "value": "2019", "language": "", "element": "date", "qualifier": "issued", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.identifier.uri", "value": "https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/62953", "language": null, "element": "identifier", "qualifier": "uri", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.description.abstract", "value": "Data-analyysin hy\u00f6dynt\u00e4minen urheilulajien analysoinnissa on yleistynyt tekniikan kehityksen my\u00f6t\u00e4. Luultavasti tunnetuin l\u00e4pimurto on tapahtunut baseballissa, joka sopii toistokokeiden tapaiselta tyylilt\u00e4\u00e4n erinomaisesti mallinnettavaksi. J\u00e4\u00e4kiekossa data-analyysi on vasta tekem\u00e4ss\u00e4 nousuaan, sill\u00e4 ottelutapahtumien tilastointi on ollut varsin niukkaa verrattuna moneen muuhun lajiin. Pelkkien maalim\u00e4\u00e4rien analysoinnissa ongelmana on maalien v\u00e4h\u00e4inen m\u00e4\u00e4r\u00e4 ottelukohtaisesti. Kaikkien laukausten sis\u00e4llytt\u00e4minen analyyseihin kasvattaa ottelukohtaista otoskokoa paljon, ja laukaisukartoista saatavien sijaintitietojen hy\u00f6dynt\u00e4minen tuo lis\u00e4arvoa. SM-Liigan laukaisukarttoja on saatavilla syksyst\u00e4 2014 alkaen. \n\nT\u00e4ss\u00e4 ty\u00f6ss\u00e4 sovitetaan maalitodenn\u00e4k\u00f6isyysmalli j\u00e4\u00e4kiekon SM-Liigan laukaisudataan, joka on saatavilla SM-Liigan verkkosivuilta. Maalitodenn\u00e4k\u00f6isyydell\u00e4 tarkoitetaan yksitt\u00e4isen laukauksen maaliin menemisen todenn\u00e4k\u00f6isyytt\u00e4. Kyseist\u00e4 todenn\u00e4k\u00f6isyytt\u00e4 voidaan mallintaa hy\u00f6dynt\u00e4m\u00e4ll\u00e4 laukaisukartoista l\u00f6ytyvi\u00e4 tietoja sijainneista ja pelaajista sek\u00e4 erikseen laskettavista lis\u00e4muuttujista. SM-Liigan aineistoon tehty\u00e4 maalitodenn\u00e4k\u00f6isyysmallia ei ole aiemmin julkaistu.\n\nMaalitodenn\u00e4k\u00f6isyysmallit sovitetaan k\u00e4ytt\u00e4m\u00e4ll\u00e4 yleistettyj\u00e4 logistisia sekamalleja, joiden avulla laukovan pelaajan ja torjuvan maalivahdin vaikutus maalitodenn\u00e4k\u00f6isyyteen voidaan huomioida. Mallien validoinnissa keskityt\u00e4\u00e4n enimm\u00e4kseen mallien kalibraatioon, eli mallin tuottamien todenn\u00e4k\u00f6isyysestimaattien laatuun. Mallien kalibraatiota tutkiessa saadaan k\u00e4sitys siit\u00e4, vastaako todenn\u00e4k\u00f6isyysestimaatti todellisuutta ja onko se luotettava. Ty\u00f6ss\u00e4 tehtyjen kalibraatiotarkastelujen perusteella mallit vaikuttavat toimivilta. Ty\u00f6ss\u00e4 k\u00e4sitell\u00e4\u00e4n my\u00f6s raakadatan muokkaamista mallintamisen kannalta sopivaan muotoon ja mallintamisessa k\u00e4ytett\u00e4vien muuttujien laskentaa sek\u00e4 esitet\u00e4\u00e4n tapoja sille, miten maalitodenn\u00e4k\u00f6isyyksi\u00e4 voidaan hy\u00f6dynt\u00e4\u00e4 pelaajien ja joukkueiden suoritusten arvioinnissa.", "language": "fi", "element": "description", "qualifier": "abstract", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.description.provenance", "value": "Submitted by Paivi Vuorio (paelvuor@jyu.fi) on 2019-02-25T11:01:10Z\nNo. of bitstreams: 0", "language": "en", "element": "description", "qualifier": "provenance", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.description.provenance", "value": "Made available in DSpace on 2019-02-25T11:01:10Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0\n Previous issue date: 2019", "language": "en", "element": "description", "qualifier": "provenance", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.format.extent", "value": "48", "language": "", "element": "format", "qualifier": "extent", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.language.iso", "value": "fin", "language": null, "element": "language", "qualifier": "iso", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.rights", "value": "In Copyright", "language": "en", "element": "rights", "qualifier": null, "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.other", "value": "urheiluanalytiikka", "language": "", "element": "subject", "qualifier": "other", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.other", "value": "sekamalli", "language": "", "element": "subject", "qualifier": "other", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.other", "value": "maalitodenn\u00e4k\u00f6isyys", "language": "", "element": "subject", "qualifier": "other", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.other", "value": "kalibraatio", "language": "", "element": "subject", "qualifier": "other", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.title", "value": "Maalitodenn\u00e4k\u00f6isyyksien mallintaminen j\u00e4\u00e4kiekossa", "language": "", "element": "title", "qualifier": null, "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.type", "value": "master thesis", "language": null, "element": "type", "qualifier": null, "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.identifier.urn", "value": "URN:NBN:fi:jyu-201902251638", "language": "", "element": "identifier", "qualifier": "urn", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.type.ontasot", "value": "Master\u2019s thesis", "language": "en", "element": "type", "qualifier": "ontasot", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.type.ontasot", "value": "Pro gradu -tutkielma", "language": "fi", "element": "type", "qualifier": "ontasot", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.contributor.faculty", "value": "Matemaattis-luonnontieteellinen tiedekunta", "language": "fi", "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "faculty", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.contributor.faculty", "value": "Faculty of Sciences", "language": "en", "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "faculty", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.contributor.department", "value": "Matematiikan ja tilastotieteen laitos", "language": "fi", "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "department", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.contributor.department", "value": "Department of Mathematics and Statistics", "language": "en", "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "department", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.contributor.organization", "value": "Jyv\u00e4skyl\u00e4n yliopisto", "language": "fi", "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "organization", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.contributor.organization", "value": "University of Jyv\u00e4skyl\u00e4", "language": "en", "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "organization", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.discipline", "value": "Tilastotiede", "language": "fi", "element": "subject", "qualifier": "discipline", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.discipline", "value": "Statistics", "language": "en", "element": "subject", "qualifier": "discipline", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "yvv.contractresearch.funding", "value": "0", "language": "", "element": "contractresearch", "qualifier": "funding", "schema": "yvv"}, {"key": "dc.type.coar", "value": "http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_bdcc", "language": null, "element": "type", "qualifier": "coar", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.rights.accesslevel", "value": "openAccess", "language": null, "element": "rights", "qualifier": "accesslevel", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.type.publication", "value": "masterThesis", "language": null, "element": "type", "qualifier": "publication", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.oppiainekoodi", "value": "4043", "language": "", "element": "subject", "qualifier": "oppiainekoodi", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.yso", "value": "data", "language": null, "element": "subject", "qualifier": "yso", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.yso", "value": "todenn\u00e4k\u00f6isyyslaskenta", "language": null, "element": "subject", "qualifier": "yso", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.yso", "value": "j\u00e4\u00e4kiekko", "language": null, "element": "subject", "qualifier": "yso", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.yso", "value": "ennusteet", "language": null, "element": "subject", "qualifier": "yso", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.rights.url", "value": "https://rightsstatements.org/page/InC/1.0/", "language": null, "element": "rights", "qualifier": "url", "schema": "dc"}]
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