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[{"key": "dc.contributor.advisor", "value": "Nyblom, Jukka", "language": null, "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "advisor", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.contributor.author", "value": "Per\u00e4l\u00e4, Ari", "language": null, "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "author", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.date.accessioned", "value": "2018-05-11T07:52:51Z", "language": null, "element": "date", "qualifier": "accessioned", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.date.available", "value": "2018-05-11T07:52:51Z", "language": null, "element": "date", "qualifier": "available", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.date.issued", "value": "2018", "language": null, "element": "date", "qualifier": "issued", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.identifier.other", "value": "oai:jykdok.linneanet.fi:1870238", "language": null, "element": "identifier", "qualifier": "other", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.identifier.uri", "value": "https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/57927", "language": null, "element": "identifier", "qualifier": "uri", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.description.abstract", "value": "Eksponentiaalisen tasoituksen menetelmill\u00e4 voidaan ennustaa tulevia havaintoja.\nYksinkertaisen eksponentiaalisen tasoituksen menetelm\u00e4ll\u00e4 ennustetaan\ntulevien havaintojen tasoa, kun taas Holtin lokaalin lineaarisen trendin menetelm\u00e4\nmahdollistaa my\u00f6s aikasarjan trendin ennustamisen. N\u00e4iden menetelmien\ntarvitsemat tasoitusparametrit saatiin uskottavuusfunktioita optimoimalla.\n\nEsiteltyj\u00e4 menetelmi\u00e4 sovellettiin vertailemalla suomalaisten miesten ja naisten\nalkoholikuolleisuutta eri 5-vuotisluokissa vuosina 1969-2016. Havaintojen\noletettiin t\u00e4ss\u00e4 olevan Poisson-jakautuneita, joten tasoitusparametrit saatiin\noptimoimalla Poisson-jakauman uskottavuusfunktiota. N\u00e4m\u00e4 optimoimalla saadut\ntasoitusparametrit olivat usein huomattavasti kirjallisuuden suosittelemia\narvoja suurempia.\n\nKokonaisuutena suomalaisten alkoholikuolleisuus on laskussa sek\u00e4 miehiss\u00e4\nett\u00e4 naisissa. T\u00e4m\u00e4 ei kuitenkaan p\u00e4de jokaisessa sukupuolittain jaotellussa\nik\u00e4luokassa. Alkoholikuolleisuus tasaantuu ja k\u00e4\u00e4ntyy jopa nousuun el\u00e4kei\u00e4n\nkynnyksell\u00e4 molemmissa sukupuolissa.\n\nVuosien 2012-2016 alkoholikuolleisuudelle laskettiin ennusteet Holtin lokaalisen\nlineaarisen trendin menetelm\u00e4ll\u00e4. Kun n\u00e4it\u00e4 alkoholikuolleisuuden ennusteita\nverrattiin kyseisin\u00e4 vuosina toteutuneisiin arvoihin, niin ennusteiden havaittiin\nvastaavan varsin hyvin toteutuneita arvoja.", "language": "fi", "element": "description", "qualifier": "abstract", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.description.provenance", "value": "Submitted using Plone Publishing form by Ari Per\u00e4l\u00e4 (asperala) on 2018-05-11 07:52:51.016254. Form: Pro gradu -lomake (https://kirjasto.jyu.fi/julkaisut/julkaisulomakkeet/pro-gradu-lomake). JyX data: [jyx_publishing-allowed (fi) =True]", "language": "en", "element": "description", "qualifier": "provenance", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.description.provenance", "value": "Submitted by jyx lomake-julkaisija (jyx-julkaisija.group@korppi.jyu.fi) on 2018-05-11T07:52:51Z\nNo. of bitstreams: 2\nURN:NBN:fi:jyu-201805112528.pdf: 544515 bytes, checksum: bd43a7fe4e56de61529c27cb45bc11b0 (MD5)\nlicense.html: 4829 bytes, checksum: e8a2f2e4208bbcfd353cd0d733cbbbbf (MD5)", "language": "en", "element": "description", "qualifier": "provenance", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.description.provenance", "value": "Made available in DSpace on 2018-05-11T07:52:51Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2\nURN:NBN:fi:jyu-201805112528.pdf: 544515 bytes, checksum: bd43a7fe4e56de61529c27cb45bc11b0 (MD5)\nlicense.html: 4829 bytes, checksum: e8a2f2e4208bbcfd353cd0d733cbbbbf (MD5)\n Previous issue date: 2018", "language": "en", "element": "description", "qualifier": "provenance", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.format.extent", "value": "1 verkkoaineisto (47 sivua)", "language": null, "element": "format", "qualifier": "extent", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.format.mimetype", "value": "application/pdf", "language": null, "element": "format", "qualifier": "mimetype", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.language.iso", "value": "fin", "language": null, "element": "language", "qualifier": "iso", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.rights", "value": "In Copyright", "language": "en", "element": "rights", "qualifier": null, "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.other", "value": "eksponentiaalinen tasoitus", "language": null, "element": "subject", "qualifier": "other", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.other", "value": "Poisson-jakauma", "language": null, "element": "subject", "qualifier": "other", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.title", "value": "Eksponentiaalisen tasoituksen sovellus alkoholikuolleisuuden ennustamiseksi", "language": null, "element": "title", "qualifier": null, "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.type", "value": "master thesis", "language": null, "element": "type", "qualifier": null, "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.identifier.urn", "value": "URN:NBN:fi:jyu-201805112528", "language": null, "element": "identifier", "qualifier": "urn", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.type.ontasot", "value": "Pro gradu -tutkielma", "language": "fi", "element": "type", "qualifier": "ontasot", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.type.ontasot", "value": "Master\u2019s thesis", "language": "en", "element": "type", "qualifier": "ontasot", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.contributor.faculty", "value": "Matemaattis-luonnontieteellinen tiedekunta", "language": "fi", "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "faculty", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.contributor.faculty", "value": "Faculty of Sciences", "language": "en", "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "faculty", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.contributor.department", "value": "Matematiikan ja tilastotieteen laitos", "language": "fi", "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "department", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.contributor.department", "value": "Department of Mathematics and Statistics", "language": "en", "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "department", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.contributor.organization", "value": "University of Jyv\u00e4skyl\u00e4", "language": "en", "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "organization", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.contributor.organization", "value": "Jyv\u00e4skyl\u00e4n yliopisto", "language": "fi", "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "organization", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.discipline", "value": "Tilastotiede", "language": "fi", "element": "subject", "qualifier": "discipline", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.discipline", "value": "Statistics", "language": "en", "element": "subject", "qualifier": "discipline", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.date.updated", "value": "2018-05-11T07:52:51Z", "language": null, "element": "date", "qualifier": "updated", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "yvv.contractresearch.funding", "value": "0", "language": null, "element": "contractresearch", "qualifier": "funding", "schema": "yvv"}, {"key": "dc.type.coar", "value": "http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_bdcc", "language": null, "element": "type", "qualifier": "coar", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.rights.accesslevel", "value": "openAccess", "language": "fi", "element": "rights", "qualifier": "accesslevel", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.type.publication", "value": "masterThesis", "language": null, "element": "type", "qualifier": "publication", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.oppiainekoodi", "value": "4043", "language": null, "element": "subject", "qualifier": "oppiainekoodi", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.yso", "value": "alkoholi", "language": null, "element": "subject", "qualifier": "yso", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.yso", "value": "kuolleisuus", "language": null, "element": "subject", "qualifier": "yso", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.yso", "value": "ennusteet", "language": null, "element": "subject", "qualifier": "yso", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.format.content", "value": "fulltext", "language": null, "element": "format", "qualifier": "content", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.rights.url", "value": "https://rightsstatements.org/page/InC/1.0/", "language": null, "element": "rights", "qualifier": "url", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.type.okm", "value": "G2", "language": null, "element": "type", "qualifier": "okm", "schema": "dc"}]
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