Correlation dynamics of bond markets effects on diversification benefits of emerging market government bonds

Tässä Pro Gradu –tutkielmassa arvioidaan korrelaatiodynamiikkaa ja hajautushyötyjä G7 –maiden ja valittujen kehittyvien markkinoiden valtioiden liikkeelle laskemien joukkovelkakirjojen välillä. Aineisto kattaa 14 joukkovelkakirjaindeksiä tammikuusta 2001 joulukuuhun 2016. Korrelaatioestimoinnit tehd...

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Main Author: Kontoniemi, Henri
Other Authors: Kauppakorkeakoulu, School of Business and Economics, Taloustieteet, University of Jyväskylä, Jyväskylän yliopisto
Format: Master's thesis
Language:eng
Published: 2017
Subjects:
Online Access: https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/54682
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author Kontoniemi, Henri
author2 Kauppakorkeakoulu School of Business and Economics Taloustieteet University of Jyväskylä Jyväskylän yliopisto
author_facet Kontoniemi, Henri Kauppakorkeakoulu School of Business and Economics Taloustieteet University of Jyväskylä Jyväskylän yliopisto Kontoniemi, Henri Kauppakorkeakoulu School of Business and Economics Taloustieteet University of Jyväskylä Jyväskylän yliopisto
author_sort Kontoniemi, Henri
datasource_str_mv jyx
description Tässä Pro Gradu –tutkielmassa arvioidaan korrelaatiodynamiikkaa ja hajautushyötyjä G7 –maiden ja valittujen kehittyvien markkinoiden valtioiden liikkeelle laskemien joukkovelkakirjojen välillä. Aineisto kattaa 14 joukkovelkakirjaindeksiä tammikuusta 2001 joulukuuhun 2016. Korrelaatioestimoinnit tehdään Englen (2002) DCC-GARCH –mallilla ja hajautushyötyjä arvioidaan taustatestaamalla historiallisia tuottosarjoja. Suoriutumista arvioidaan Sharpen suhdeluvulla kahdeksalle eri tavalla rakennetulle portfoliolle painotusmenetelmän, eri omaisuusluokkiin hajauttamisen ja valuuttakurssimuutoksille altistumisen toimiessa muuttujina. Tulokset implikoivat ajassa muuttuvaa dynaamista korrelaatiota kehittyneiden ja kehittyvien maiden joukkovelkakirjojen tuottojen välillä, joskin pysyvää muutosta korrelaatiossa ei ole havaittavissa. Finanssikriisin seurauksena korrelaatio laskee väliaikaisesti valuuttakurssimuutosten vuoksi. Analyysi eri joukkovelkakirjoihin hajauttamisen välillä osoittaa suurempaa Sharpen suhdelukua kansainvälisellä hajauttamisella kehittyvien markkinoiden joukkovelkakirjoihin. Suurimmat hyödyt olivat saatavilla jaksolla heti finanssikriisin jälkeen. Yhdysvaltalaissijoittajan näkökulmasta valuuttakurssimuutoksilta suojautuminen ei osoittautunut kannattavaksi. Vuosittain tasapainotettu minimivarianssiportfolio ei kyennyt päihittämään passiivista portfoliota, jossa sijoitukset hajautettiin tasaisesti kaikkiin joukkovelkakirjoihin. This Master’s Thesis investigates the correlation dynamics and the diversification benefits of G7 countries’ and chosen emerging market countries’ government bonds. The data set of 14 government bond indices used in the study covers the period from January 2001 to December 2016. The dynamic correlation estimates are conducted with DCC–GARCH –model introduced by Engle (2002) and the diversification benefits are estimated by backtesting on the historical return series. The performance is evaluated with Sharpe ratio on eight differently built portfolios, weighting strategy, asset allocation and currency exposure being the variables. The results show that there is time-varying dynamic conditional correlation between matured- and emerging market bond returns, while a persistent shift in correlation level is unobservable. The financial crisis causes a temporary plunge in the correlation level due to currency changes. The analysis on asset allocation implies that during this period the Sharpe ratio improved by international diversification to emerging bond markets. The highest benefits were achieved in the sub period following the financial crisis. For an U.S. based investor, hedging against currency exposure is not found beneficial. Passively managed portfolio with equal weights on all securities outperformed an annually rebalanced minimum variance portfolio.
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spellingShingle Kontoniemi, Henri Correlation dynamics of bond markets : effects on diversification benefits of emerging market government bonds government bonds emerging markets market correlation DCC-GARCH international diversification Sharpe ratio backtesting Kansantaloustiede Economics 2041 joukkovelkakirjat kehittyvät markkinat korrelaatio
title Correlation dynamics of bond markets : effects on diversification benefits of emerging market government bonds
title_alt Effects on diversification benefits of emerging market government bonds
title_full Correlation dynamics of bond markets : effects on diversification benefits of emerging market government bonds
title_fullStr Correlation dynamics of bond markets : effects on diversification benefits of emerging market government bonds Correlation dynamics of bond markets : effects on diversification benefits of emerging market government bonds
title_full_unstemmed Correlation dynamics of bond markets : effects on diversification benefits of emerging market government bonds Correlation dynamics of bond markets : effects on diversification benefits of emerging market government bonds
title_short Correlation dynamics of bond markets
title_sort correlation dynamics of bond markets effects on diversification benefits of emerging market government bonds
title_sub effects on diversification benefits of emerging market government bonds
title_txtP Correlation dynamics of bond markets : effects on diversification benefits of emerging market government bonds
topic government bonds emerging markets market correlation DCC-GARCH international diversification Sharpe ratio backtesting Kansantaloustiede Economics 2041 joukkovelkakirjat kehittyvät markkinat korrelaatio
topic_facet 2041 DCC-GARCH Economics Kansantaloustiede Sharpe ratio backtesting emerging markets government bonds international diversification joukkovelkakirjat kehittyvät markkinat korrelaatio market correlation
url https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/54682 http://www.urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:jyu-201706273054
work_keys_str_mv AT kontoniemihenri correlationdynamicsofbondmarketseffectsondiversificationbenefitsofemergingmarket