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[{"key": "dc.contributor.advisor", "value": "Karvanen, Juha", "language": null, "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "advisor", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.contributor.author", "value": "Petman, Joni", "language": null, "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "author", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.date.accessioned", "value": "2017-06-15T10:29:50Z", "language": null, "element": "date", "qualifier": "accessioned", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.date.available", "value": "2017-06-15T10:29:50Z", "language": null, "element": "date", "qualifier": "available", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.date.issued", "value": "2017", "language": null, "element": "date", "qualifier": "issued", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.identifier.other", "value": "oai:jykdok.linneanet.fi:1703899", "language": null, "element": "identifier", "qualifier": "other", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.identifier.uri", "value": "https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/54522", "language": null, "element": "identifier", "qualifier": "uri", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.description.abstract", "value": "T\u00e4m\u00e4n tutkielman tarkoituksena on kehitt\u00e4\u00e4 prediktiivinen malli, jolla ennustetaan Jyv\u00e4skyl\u00e4n yliopiston matemaattis-luonnontieteellisess\u00e4 tiedekunnassa l\u00e4hivuosina suoritettavien luonnontieteiden kandidaatin ja filosofian maisterin tutkintojen lukum\u00e4\u00e4ri\u00e4. Mallin estimointiin k\u00e4ytett\u00e4v\u00e4 aineisto koostuu kolmesta osasta: vuosina 1996\u20132004 tiedekunnassa aloittaneet opiskelijat, vuosina 2005\u20132015 tiedekunnassa alemmasta korkeakoulututkinnosta aloittaneet opiskelijat ja vuosina 2005\u20132016 tiedekunnassa ylemm\u00e4st\u00e4 korkeakoulututkinnosta aloittaneet opiskelijat. Jokaiselle aineiston osalle sovitetaan omat toisistaan riippumattomat osamallit. Tutkintoennusteet saadaan ennustamalla aineistoon kuuluville yh\u00e4 tutkintoa vaille oleville opiskelijoille mahdolliset tutkinnot seuraaville kalenterivuosille.\n\nVuonna 2005 ja sen j\u00e4lkeen aloittaneiden opiskelijoiden opintoja mallinnetaan k\u00e4ytt\u00e4en tilaketjuja, joiden tilat m\u00e4\u00e4ritell\u00e4\u00e4n opiskelijan opintopistekertym\u00e4n ja aktiivisen opinto-oikeuden perusteella. Mallissa opiskelijat suorittavat aina kalenterivuoden p\u00e4\u00e4tteeksi tilasiirtym\u00e4n mallin tilasta toiseen ja tutkintoennusteita varten opiskelijoille arvotaan tilasiirtym\u00e4t tuleville kalenterivuosille. Opiskelijoille estimoidaan multinomiaalisella logistisella regressiolla tilasiirtym\u00e4todenn\u00e4k\u00f6isyydet, joiden perusteella tilasiirtym\u00e4t arvotaan. Tilasiirtym\u00e4todenn\u00e4k\u00f6isyyksi\u00e4 selitet\u00e4\u00e4n opiskelijoiden ominaisuuksilla, kuten opintojen kestolla ja opiskelijan i\u00e4ll\u00e4 opintojen alussa. Mallin regressiokertoimet estimoidaan hierarkkisella Bayes-mallilla k\u00e4ytt\u00e4en Markovin ketju Monte Carlo -menetelm\u00e4\u00e4. Ennen vuotta 2005 aloittaneiden opiskelijoiden aineistolle sovitetaan yksinkertaisempi malli, jossa opiskelijoiden tutkinnonsuorittamistodenn\u00e4k\u00f6isyyksi\u00e4 estimoidaan bin\u00e4\u00e4risell\u00e4 logistisella regressiolla.\n\nEnnusteita varten sovitetaan useita erilaisia malleja, jotka eroavat toisistaan sen perusteella, kuinka malleissa k\u00e4ytett\u00e4v\u00e4t selitt\u00e4v\u00e4t muuttujat on valittu. Eri malleilla saatuja tutkintoennusteita vertaillaan ja pohditaan, mill\u00e4 mallilla saadaan parhaimmat tutkintoennusteet. My\u00f6s siirtym\u00e4todenn\u00e4k\u00f6isyyksi\u00e4 estimoivia regressiokertoimia tulkitaan ja katsotaan, mitk\u00e4 tekij\u00e4t vaikuttavat positiivisesti ja mitk\u00e4 negatiivisesti yliopisto-opintojen etenemiseen. Lis\u00e4ksi opiskelijoiden tutkinnonsuorittamistodenn\u00e4k\u00f6isyyksi\u00e4 vertaillaan simuloimalla erilaisten opiskelijoiden opintojen kulkua opintojen alusta seitsem\u00e4n vuotta eteenp\u00e4in.", "language": "fi", "element": "description", "qualifier": "abstract", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.description.provenance", "value": "Submitted using Plone Publishing form by Joni Petman (jojotipe) on 2017-06-15 10:29:50.403134. Form: Pro gradu -lomake (https://kirjasto.jyu.fi/julkaisut/julkaisulomakkeet/pro-gradu-lomake). JyX data: [jyx_publishing-allowed (fi) =True]", "language": "en", "element": "description", "qualifier": "provenance", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.description.provenance", "value": "Submitted by jyx lomake-julkaisija (jyx-julkaisija.group@korppi.jyu.fi) on 2017-06-15T10:29:50Z\nNo. of bitstreams: 2\nURN:NBN:fi:jyu-201706152907.pdf: 582422 bytes, checksum: ba07a31fcd23c874bf49cd4835d15cdf (MD5)\nlicense.html: 4810 bytes, checksum: c0111cdd6ecc4b28c1bea613cbec833e (MD5)", "language": "en", "element": "description", "qualifier": "provenance", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.description.provenance", "value": "Made available in DSpace on 2017-06-15T10:29:50Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2\nURN:NBN:fi:jyu-201706152907.pdf: 582422 bytes, checksum: ba07a31fcd23c874bf49cd4835d15cdf (MD5)\nlicense.html: 4810 bytes, checksum: c0111cdd6ecc4b28c1bea613cbec833e (MD5)\n Previous issue date: 2017", "language": "en", "element": "description", "qualifier": "provenance", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.format.extent", "value": "1 verkkoaineisto (84 sivua)", "language": null, "element": "format", "qualifier": "extent", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.format.mimetype", "value": "application/pdf", "language": null, "element": "format", "qualifier": "mimetype", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.language.iso", "value": "fin", "language": null, "element": "language", "qualifier": "iso", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.rights", "value": "In Copyright", "language": "en", "element": "rights", "qualifier": null, "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.other", "value": "Bayes-tilastotiede", "language": null, "element": "subject", "qualifier": "other", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.other", "value": "multinomiaalinen logistinen regressio", "language": null, "element": "subject", "qualifier": "other", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.other", "value": "Markovin ketju Monte Carlo (MCMC)", "language": null, "element": "subject", "qualifier": "other", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.other", "value": "yliopisto-opinnot", "language": null, "element": "subject", "qualifier": "other", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.other", "value": "opintojen keskeytt\u00e4minen", "language": null, "element": "subject", "qualifier": "other", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.other", "value": "opiskeluaika", "language": null, "element": "subject", "qualifier": "other", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.title", "value": "Yliopistotutkintojen m\u00e4\u00e4r\u00e4n ennustaminen Bayes-mallilla", "language": null, "element": "title", "qualifier": null, "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.type", "value": "master thesis", "language": null, "element": "type", "qualifier": null, 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of Mathematics and Statistics", "language": "en", "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "department", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.contributor.organization", "value": "University of Jyv\u00e4skyl\u00e4", "language": "en", "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "organization", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.contributor.organization", "value": "Jyv\u00e4skyl\u00e4n yliopisto", "language": "fi", "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "organization", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.discipline", "value": "Tilastotiede", "language": "fi", "element": "subject", "qualifier": "discipline", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.discipline", "value": "Statistics", "language": "en", "element": "subject", "qualifier": "discipline", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.date.updated", "value": "2017-06-15T10:29:51Z", "language": null, "element": "date", "qualifier": "updated", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "yvv.contractresearch.funding", "value": "0", "language": null, "element": "contractresearch", 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