Time-varying conditional correlation effect on international portfolio diversification in Southeast Asia

Tämä tutkimus tarkastelee USA:n ja valittujen Kaakkois-Aasian kehittyvien maiden markkinoita; Philippiinejä, Indonesiaa, Malesiaa ja Thaimaata. Tutkimus antaa tuloksia sekä USA:n että indonesialaisen sijoittajan näkökulmasta. Merkittävä rooli tutkimuksessa on ajassa muuttuvan korrelaation havainnoll...

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Main Author: Mikkonen, Teemu
Other Authors: Jyväskylä University School of Business and Economics, Jyväskylän yliopiston kauppakorkeakoulu, Taloustieteet, University of Jyväskylä, Jyväskylän yliopisto
Format: Master's thesis
Language:eng
Published: 2017
Subjects:
Online Access: https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/52762
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author Mikkonen, Teemu
author2 Jyväskylä University School of Business and Economics Jyväskylän yliopiston kauppakorkeakoulu Taloustieteet University of Jyväskylä Jyväskylän yliopisto
author_facet Mikkonen, Teemu Jyväskylä University School of Business and Economics Jyväskylän yliopiston kauppakorkeakoulu Taloustieteet University of Jyväskylä Jyväskylän yliopisto Mikkonen, Teemu Jyväskylä University School of Business and Economics Jyväskylän yliopiston kauppakorkeakoulu Taloustieteet University of Jyväskylä Jyväskylän yliopisto
author_sort Mikkonen, Teemu
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description Tämä tutkimus tarkastelee USA:n ja valittujen Kaakkois-Aasian kehittyvien maiden markkinoita; Philippiinejä, Indonesiaa, Malesiaa ja Thaimaata. Tutkimus antaa tuloksia sekä USA:n että indonesialaisen sijoittajan näkökulmasta. Merkittävä rooli tutkimuksessa on ajassa muuttuvan korrelaation havainnollistamisessa osakeindeksien välillä käyttäen apuna Englen vuonna 2002 esittelemää DCC-GARCH mallia. Tutkimuksessa käytetty data on vuodesta 1988 vuoteen 2015 saakka. Tulokset paljastavat kuinka valittujen osakemarkkinoiden välinen korrelaatio on muuttunut kolmen kriisin - Aasian kriisin, teknologiakuplan ja globaali talouskriisin - myötä ja onko muutos ollut pysyvää vai ei. Lisäksi tutkimuksessa tutkitaan ajassa muuttuvien korrelaatioiden vaikutusta kansainvälisiin hajautushyötyihin käyttäen Markowitzin portfolion optimointi -viitekehystä. Tutkimuksen tulokset osoittavat maiden välisten korrelaatioiden vaihdelleen ajassa etenkin globaalin talouskriisin seurauksena, mutta korrelaatioiden muutokset eivät ole pysyviä. Korrelaatioiden perusteella pitkän aikavälin hajautushyödyt eivät näytä vähentyneen. Portfolion optimointiosion tulokset tukevat tätä päätelmää. Tulokset osoittavat myös indonesialaisen sijoittajan kannalta alueellisen sijoitussalkun hajauttamisen olevan erittäin hyödyllistä. This paper investigates the correlations and the portfolio diversification benefits between the stock markets of the US and chosen Southeast Asian emerging markets; Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. Moreover, this study provides results from both the US and the Indonesian investor’s perspectives. The focus is on capturing the time-varying effect of correlation between stock indices by using a DCC-GARCH model first introduced by Engle in 2002. The used data goes from 1988 to the end of 2015. The results provide answers on whether or not the three financial crises, the Asian crisis, the Dot-com bubble and the Global financial crisis, have had an impact on the correlations between the indices of the chosen countries and whether the change has been persistent or not. The impact the time-varying correlations have on international diversification benefits are further studied in Markowitz’s portfolio optimization framework. The findings of this study indicate that the correlations vary from time to time, and especially as the result of the Global financial crisis, but the changes in correlations are not found to be persistent. The correlation dynamics do not show clear evidence of reduced diversification benefits in the long run which is further supported by the findings from the portfolio optimization framework. For Indonesian investor, also the regional diversification benefits are found to be highly significant.
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spellingShingle Mikkonen, Teemu Time-varying conditional correlation : effect on international portfolio diversification in Southeast Asia Emerging Markets International diversification Market correlation Time-varying conditional correlation GARCH Kansantaloustiede Economics 2041 kehittyvät markkinat markkinat (taloustiede) korrelaatio hajautus kansainvälinen talous markkinat Kaakkois-Aasia Yhdysvallat
title Time-varying conditional correlation : effect on international portfolio diversification in Southeast Asia
title_alt Effect on international portfolio diversification in Southeast Asia
title_full Time-varying conditional correlation : effect on international portfolio diversification in Southeast Asia
title_fullStr Time-varying conditional correlation : effect on international portfolio diversification in Southeast Asia Time-varying conditional correlation : effect on international portfolio diversification in Southeast Asia
title_full_unstemmed Time-varying conditional correlation : effect on international portfolio diversification in Southeast Asia Time-varying conditional correlation : effect on international portfolio diversification in Southeast Asia
title_short Time-varying conditional correlation
title_sort time varying conditional correlation effect on international portfolio diversification in southeast asia
title_sub effect on international portfolio diversification in Southeast Asia
title_txtP Time-varying conditional correlation : effect on international portfolio diversification in Southeast Asia
topic Emerging Markets International diversification Market correlation Time-varying conditional correlation GARCH Kansantaloustiede Economics 2041 kehittyvät markkinat markkinat (taloustiede) korrelaatio hajautus kansainvälinen talous markkinat Kaakkois-Aasia Yhdysvallat
topic_facet 2041 Economics Emerging Markets GARCH International diversification Kaakkois-Aasia Kansantaloustiede Market correlation Time-varying conditional correlation Yhdysvallat hajautus kansainvälinen talous kehittyvät markkinat korrelaatio markkinat markkinat (taloustiede)
url https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/52762 http://www.urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:jyu-201701181187
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