Integration cycles in the Eurozone stock markets

Tutkimuksessa analysoitiin euroalueen osakemarkkinoiden integraatiota euroaikana Pukthuanthong & Roll (2009) integraatiomitalla. Tutkimuksella oli kaksi päätavoitetta. Ensimmäinen tavoite oli tutkia integraation kehitystä euroalueella euroaikana käyttämällä tätä melko uutta monifaktorimalleihin...

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Päätekijä: Leskinen, Jussi
Muut tekijät: Kauppakorkeakoulu, School of Business and Economics, Taloustieteet, Business and Economics, University of Jyväskylä, Jyväskylän yliopisto
Aineistotyyppi: Pro gradu
Kieli:eng
Julkaistu: 2016
Aiheet:
Linkit: https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/50905
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author Leskinen, Jussi
author2 Kauppakorkeakoulu School of Business and Economics Taloustieteet Business and Economics University of Jyväskylä Jyväskylän yliopisto
author_facet Leskinen, Jussi Kauppakorkeakoulu School of Business and Economics Taloustieteet Business and Economics University of Jyväskylä Jyväskylän yliopisto Leskinen, Jussi Kauppakorkeakoulu School of Business and Economics Taloustieteet Business and Economics University of Jyväskylä Jyväskylän yliopisto
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description Tutkimuksessa analysoitiin euroalueen osakemarkkinoiden integraatiota euroaikana Pukthuanthong & Roll (2009) integraatiomitalla. Tutkimuksella oli kaksi päätavoitetta. Ensimmäinen tavoite oli tutkia integraation kehitystä euroalueella euroaikana käyttämällä tätä melko uutta monifaktorimalleihin perustuvaa integraatiomittaa. Integraation lisäksi tutkittiin myös riskialtistusten samankaltaisuutta (integraation selittämiseen vaadittavien faktorien määrä). Tutkimuksen toinen tavoite oli etsiä integraatiota selittäviä tekijöitä sisältäen myös tutkimuksen ajanjaksolle osuneen finanssikriisin (2007-2009) ja sitä seuranneen Euroopan valtionlainakriisin (2009-2013) vaikutuksen. Tutkimuksen aineisto koostuu 12 euroalueen maasta (11 alkuperäistä jäsenmaata + Kreikka), ja tarkasteluperiodi on vuodet 1999-2014. Tutkimuksen antama kuva integraatiosta on, että integraatiossa on nousu- ja laskusyklejä. Integroituneimmat markkinat ovat Ranska, Alankomaat, Saksa, Italia ja Espanja, vähiten integroituneimmat Kreikka, Luxemburg, Portugali ja Irlanti. Itävallan, Belgian ja Suomen markkinat ovat integroituneemmat kuin jälkimmäisen ryhmän, mutta vähemmän integroituneet kuin ensimmäisen ryhmän. Itävallan, Suomen ja Portugalin integraatio on lisääntynyt tutkimuksen ajanjaksolla. Riskialtistukset ovat muuttuneet euroaikana yhdenmukaisemmiksi: osaketuottojen selittämiseen tarvitaan vähemmän riskifaktoreita kuin ennen. Integraatiota selittäviä tekijöitä tutkittiin pooled OLS, fixed effects ja first differences paneelimallien avulla kuukausi ja kvartaalidatalla. Integraation determinantteina tarkasteltiin rahoitusmarkkinamuuttujia, makrotaloudellisia tekijöitä ja informaatiomuuttujia, mutta niiden yhteyttä integraatioon ei kyetty osoittamaan luotettavasti. 10 vuoden valtionlainan tuottovaatimus selittää parhaiten integraatiota, mutta vaikutuksen suunta ja suuruus vaihtelee yli ajan ja eri osakemarkkinoiden välillä. Volatiliteetin, talouspolitiikkaepävarmuuden tai valtion velkaantuneisuusasteen ei havaittu olevan vahvoja integraation determinantteja. Sekä globaalin finanssikriisin ajoitusta että Euroopan valtionlainakriisin ajoitusta käytettäessä saatiin evidenssiä, että kriisi lisäsi koko 12 maan joukon integraatiota, mutta vaikutus oli suurempi heikoimmin integroituneille maille. Integraatio ei palannut akuutin kriisivaiheen jälkeen kriisiä edeltäneelle tasolle. Asiasanat In this thesis, the stock market integration in the Eurozone stock markets during the EMU era was analyzed using the Pukthuanthong & Roll (2009) integration measure. The objectives of this study were twofold. The first main contribution of this study was to examine the evolution of integration during the EMU era by utilizing this relatively new multifactor model of integration. In addition to the level of integration, the similarity of risk exposures in these stock markets (number of risk factors needed to measure integration satisfactorily) was also analyzed. The second contribution was to identify the most relevant determinants of integration, also including the effects of the global financial crisis of 2007-2009 and the following European sovereign debt crisis of 2009-2013 on integration. The sample consists of 12 Eurozone stock markets (11 original member countries + Greece), and it contains the years 1999-2014. The main picture of integration given by this study is that there are upward and downward cycles in integration. The most integrated markets are France, Netherlands, Germany, Italy and Spain. The least integrated are Greece, Luxembourg, Portugal and Ireland. Austria, Belgium and Finland form a middle group of countries more integrated than the latter, but less integrated than the first. Integration of Austria, Finland and Portugal has increased during the period of this study. The risk exposures have become more similar during the EMU era: fewer risk factors are needed to capture the variation in stock returns. The determinants of integration were studied using pooled OLS, fixed effects and first differences panel models with monthly and quarterly data. Financial market, macroeconomic and information variables were examined as the most plausible determinants of integration, but no reliable dependence between these variables and integration could be identified. 10 year government bond yield is the best explanatory variable for integration, but the sign of the coefficient varies over time and between stock markets. Specifically, volatility, economic policy uncertainty or government indebtedness do not have a strong dependence with integration. With both the global financial crisis and the European debt crisis timings, evidence was obtained that the crisis increased integration for the whole sample of 12 countries, but this effect was stronger for the group of the least integrated countries. Integration did not return to its pre-crisis level after the acute crisis period.
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Tutkimuksella oli kaksi p\u00e4\u00e4tavoitetta. Ensimm\u00e4inen tavoite oli tutkia integraation kehityst\u00e4 euroalueella euroaikana k\u00e4ytt\u00e4m\u00e4ll\u00e4 t\u00e4t\u00e4 melko uutta monifaktorimalleihin perustuvaa integraatiomittaa. Integraation lis\u00e4ksi tutkittiin my\u00f6s riskialtistusten samankaltaisuutta (integraation selitt\u00e4miseen vaadittavien faktorien m\u00e4\u00e4r\u00e4). Tutkimuksen toinen tavoite oli etsi\u00e4 integraatiota selitt\u00e4vi\u00e4 tekij\u00f6it\u00e4 sis\u00e4lt\u00e4en my\u00f6s tutkimuksen ajanjaksolle osuneen finanssikriisin (2007-2009) ja sit\u00e4 seuranneen Euroopan valtionlainakriisin (2009-2013) vaikutuksen. Tutkimuksen aineisto koostuu 12 euroalueen maasta (11 alkuper\u00e4ist\u00e4 j\u00e4senmaata + Kreikka), ja tarkasteluperiodi on vuodet 1999-2014. Tutkimuksen antama kuva integraatiosta on, ett\u00e4 integraatiossa on nousu- ja laskusyklej\u00e4. Integroituneimmat markkinat ovat Ranska, Alankomaat, Saksa, Italia ja Espanja, v\u00e4hiten integroituneimmat Kreikka, Luxemburg, Portugali ja Irlanti. It\u00e4vallan, Belgian ja Suomen markkinat ovat integroituneemmat kuin j\u00e4lkimm\u00e4isen ryhm\u00e4n, mutta v\u00e4hemm\u00e4n integroituneet kuin ensimm\u00e4isen ryhm\u00e4n. It\u00e4vallan, Suomen ja Portugalin integraatio on lis\u00e4\u00e4ntynyt tutkimuksen ajanjaksolla. Riskialtistukset ovat muuttuneet euroaikana yhdenmukaisemmiksi: osaketuottojen selitt\u00e4miseen tarvitaan v\u00e4hemm\u00e4n riskifaktoreita kuin ennen. Integraatiota selitt\u00e4vi\u00e4 tekij\u00f6it\u00e4 tutkittiin pooled OLS, fixed effects ja first differences paneelimallien avulla kuukausi ja kvartaalidatalla. 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spellingShingle Leskinen, Jussi Integration cycles in the Eurozone stock markets Euroopan talous- ja rahaliitto valtionlainat integraation determinantit Kansantaloustiede Economics 2041 euroalue arvopaperimarkkinat taloudellinen integraatio finanssikriisit
title Integration cycles in the Eurozone stock markets
title_full Integration cycles in the Eurozone stock markets
title_fullStr Integration cycles in the Eurozone stock markets Integration cycles in the Eurozone stock markets
title_full_unstemmed Integration cycles in the Eurozone stock markets Integration cycles in the Eurozone stock markets
title_short Integration cycles in the Eurozone stock markets
title_sort integration cycles in the eurozone stock markets
title_txtP Integration cycles in the Eurozone stock markets
topic Euroopan talous- ja rahaliitto valtionlainat integraation determinantit Kansantaloustiede Economics 2041 euroalue arvopaperimarkkinat taloudellinen integraatio finanssikriisit
topic_facet 2041 Economics Euroopan talous- ja rahaliitto Kansantaloustiede arvopaperimarkkinat euroalue finanssikriisit integraation determinantit taloudellinen integraatio valtionlainat
url https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/50905 http://www.urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:jyu-201608013704
work_keys_str_mv AT leskinenjussi integrationcyclesintheeurozonestockmarkets