Probing the interplay of microbes and medicine in a hospital setting using an individual-based model

Tämän tutkielman tavoitteena oli kehittää graafisen käyttöliittymän omaava monipuolinen simulaatioympäristö, jolla voidaan mallintaa bakteerien leviämistä sairaalaympäristössä. Ohjelma mahdollistaa noin neljänkymmenen sairaalaparametrin asettamisen ja tulosten purkamisen taulukkomuotoon. Kyseisessä...

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Main Author: Hoikkala, Ville
Other Authors: Matemaattis-luonnontieteellinen tiedekunta, Faculty of Sciences, Bio- ja ympäristötieteiden laitos, Department of Biological and Environmental Science, University of Jyväskylä, Jyväskylän yliopisto
Format: Master's thesis
Language:eng
Published: 2014
Subjects:
Online Access: https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/44617
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author Hoikkala, Ville
author2 Matemaattis-luonnontieteellinen tiedekunta Faculty of Sciences Bio- ja ympäristötieteiden laitos Department of Biological and Environmental Science University of Jyväskylä Jyväskylän yliopisto
author_facet Hoikkala, Ville Matemaattis-luonnontieteellinen tiedekunta Faculty of Sciences Bio- ja ympäristötieteiden laitos Department of Biological and Environmental Science University of Jyväskylä Jyväskylän yliopisto Hoikkala, Ville Matemaattis-luonnontieteellinen tiedekunta Faculty of Sciences Bio- ja ympäristötieteiden laitos Department of Biological and Environmental Science University of Jyväskylä Jyväskylän yliopisto
author_sort Hoikkala, Ville
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description Tämän tutkielman tavoitteena oli kehittää graafisen käyttöliittymän omaava monipuolinen simulaatioympäristö, jolla voidaan mallintaa bakteerien leviämistä sairaalaympäristössä. Ohjelma mahdollistaa noin neljänkymmenen sairaalaparametrin asettamisen ja tulosten purkamisen taulukkomuotoon. Kyseisessä yksilöpohjaisessa mallissa keskitytään sairaalatyöntekijöiden ja potilaiden välisiin vuorovaikutuksiin. Työntekijät toimivat vektoreina, levittäen bakteeri-infektioita potilaiden välillä. Bakteerimallinnus yksittäisen potilaan sisällä on toteutettu matemaattisesti. Bakteerit voivat kilpailla keskenään ja muuntua antibiooteille vastustuskykyisiksi; tällöin voidaan hyödyntää faagiterapiaa, jossa infektioita hoidetaan bakteriofaageilla. Malli osoittaa, että antibioottien ja faagiterapian yhtäaikainen käyttö on huomattavasti tehokkaampaa kuin eriaikainen käyttö: yhtäaikaisessa käytössä sensitiivisten bakteereiden kokonaismäärä sairaalassa laski 29% ja antibioottiresistenttien bakteereiden määrä 10%. Sensitiivisyysanalyysissa selvisi, että esimerkiksi hoitotodennäköisyysparametrilla on suuri, eksponentiaalinen vaikutus keskimääräiseen sairaalassaoloaikaan: 10% hoitotodennäköisyys johti 16 päivän keskipituuteen, kun 100% todennäköisyys johti 7 päivän mittaiseen keskipituuteen. Työntekijöiden hygieniakäytännöt vaikuttavat vahvasti bakteerien kokonaismäärään sairaalassa. Täydet hygienatoimet eivät kuitenkaan riitä koko sairaalan bakteerikannan tuhoamiseen, eivätkä olemattomat hygienatoimet johda jokaisen potilaan infektioon. Tulosten merkityksellisyys on vahvasti riippuvaista parametrien arvoista, joista osa on laajalti spekulatiivisia. Mallia tulisi siis lähinnä käyttää riippuvaisuuksien etsimiseen ja herkkyyksien arvioimiseen. Työ tarjoaa pohjan vektorivälitteisten ja yksilöpohjaisten simulaatiomallien kehittämiseen tulevaisuudessa. The objective of this project was to develop a simulation environment with a graphical user interface for the study of nosocomial infections. The software allows for the tuning of nearly 40 different hospital parameters and for the export of results in spreadsheet form. The individual-based model focuses on interactions between health-care workers and patients. Pathogens are spread between patients by the workers and the ensuing infections are modeled mathematically. Pathogen mutation to antibiotic-resistant strains is possible and the pathogens may outcompete one another. Phage therapy, the utilization of bacteriophages in treating infections, is included alongside antibiotics as a treatment option. The model indicates that simultaneous use of phage therapy and antibiotics has clear advantage to exclusive use: when simultaneous use is allowed the prevalence of susceptible bacteria decreases by 29% and that of antibiotic resistant bacteria by 10% on the hospital population level. A sensitivity analysis reveals that treatment probability, a parameter describing the likelihood of an infection being noticed, is highly influential in determining average duration of stay: 10% treatment probability results in average duration of stay of 16 days, whereas 100% certainty results in average duration of stay of 7 days. The values in-between follow exponential law. Hand-washing compliance is observed to be strongly and reversely correlated with the prevalence of pathogens. However, full compliance does not entirely eradicate the bacteria, nor does zero-compliance result in total saturation of the population. These limits are due to constant in- and outflux of patients, some incoming patients being colonized prior to arrival. Full saturation of the patient population does not occur when the rate of transfer is low enough to allow patients to leave the hospital before becoming infected. Significance of the results is highly dependent on parameter values, which are often very speculative. The model should therefore be primarily used to study dependencies and sensitivities of parameters. The work lays foundation for the development of more general vector-mediated simulation engines in the future.
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Ohjelma\nmahdollistaa noin nelj\u00e4nkymmenen sairaalaparametrin asettamisen ja tulosten purkamisen\ntaulukkomuotoon. Kyseisess\u00e4 yksil\u00f6pohjaisessa mallissa keskityt\u00e4\u00e4n sairaalaty\u00f6ntekij\u00f6iden ja\npotilaiden v\u00e4lisiin vuorovaikutuksiin. Ty\u00f6ntekij\u00e4t toimivat vektoreina, levitt\u00e4en bakteeri-infektioita\npotilaiden v\u00e4lill\u00e4. Bakteerimallinnus yksitt\u00e4isen potilaan sis\u00e4ll\u00e4 on toteutettu matemaattisesti.\nBakteerit voivat kilpailla kesken\u00e4\u00e4n ja muuntua antibiooteille vastustuskykyisiksi; t\u00e4ll\u00f6in voidaan\nhy\u00f6dynt\u00e4\u00e4 faagiterapiaa, jossa infektioita hoidetaan bakteriofaageilla. Malli osoittaa, ett\u00e4 antibioottien\nja faagiterapian yht\u00e4aikainen k\u00e4ytt\u00f6 on huomattavasti tehokkaampaa kuin eriaikainen k\u00e4ytt\u00f6:\nyht\u00e4aikaisessa k\u00e4yt\u00f6ss\u00e4 sensitiivisten bakteereiden kokonaism\u00e4\u00e4r\u00e4 sairaalassa laski 29% ja\nantibioottiresistenttien bakteereiden m\u00e4\u00e4r\u00e4 10%. Sensitiivisyysanalyysissa selvisi, ett\u00e4 esimerkiksi\nhoitotodenn\u00e4k\u00f6isyysparametrilla on suuri, eksponentiaalinen vaikutus keskim\u00e4\u00e4r\u00e4iseen\nsairaalassaoloaikaan: 10% hoitotodenn\u00e4k\u00f6isyys johti 16 p\u00e4iv\u00e4n keskipituuteen, kun 100%\ntodenn\u00e4k\u00f6isyys johti 7 p\u00e4iv\u00e4n mittaiseen keskipituuteen. Ty\u00f6ntekij\u00f6iden hygieniak\u00e4yt\u00e4nn\u00f6t\nvaikuttavat vahvasti bakteerien kokonaism\u00e4\u00e4r\u00e4\u00e4n sairaalassa. 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spellingShingle Hoikkala, Ville Probing the interplay of microbes and medicine in a hospital setting using an individual-based model antibioottiresistenssi faagiterapia Solu- ja molekyylibiologia Cell and molecular biology 4013 simulointi bakteerit sairaalat fagiterapia
title Probing the interplay of microbes and medicine in a hospital setting using an individual-based model
title_full Probing the interplay of microbes and medicine in a hospital setting using an individual-based model
title_fullStr Probing the interplay of microbes and medicine in a hospital setting using an individual-based model Probing the interplay of microbes and medicine in a hospital setting using an individual-based model
title_full_unstemmed Probing the interplay of microbes and medicine in a hospital setting using an individual-based model Probing the interplay of microbes and medicine in a hospital setting using an individual-based model
title_short Probing the interplay of microbes and medicine in a hospital setting using an individual-based model
title_sort probing the interplay of microbes and medicine in a hospital setting using an individual based model
title_txtP Probing the interplay of microbes and medicine in a hospital setting using an individual-based model
topic antibioottiresistenssi faagiterapia Solu- ja molekyylibiologia Cell and molecular biology 4013 simulointi bakteerit sairaalat fagiterapia
topic_facet 4013 Cell and molecular biology Solu- ja molekyylibiologia antibioottiresistenssi bakteerit faagiterapia fagiterapia sairaalat simulointi
url https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/44617 http://www.urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:jyu-201411113219
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