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[{"key": "dc.contributor.author", "value": "Nuojua, Viivi", "language": null, "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "author", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.date.accessioned", "value": "2014-08-23T19:14:34Z", "language": null, "element": "date", "qualifier": "accessioned", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.date.available", "value": "2014-08-23T19:14:34Z", "language": null, "element": "date", "qualifier": "available", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.date.issued", "value": "2014", "language": null, "element": "date", "qualifier": "issued", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.identifier.other", "value": "oai:jykdok.linneanet.fi:1444536", "language": null, "element": "identifier", "qualifier": "other", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.identifier.uri", "value": "https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/44084", "language": null, "element": "identifier", "qualifier": "uri", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.description.abstract", "value": "Suomen merkitt\u00e4vimm\u00e4n riistael\u00e4imen, hirven, populaation kokoa kontrolloidaan tarkasti luvanvaraisella mets\u00e4styksell\u00e4. On jo pitk\u00e4\u00e4n arveltu, ett\u00e4 mets\u00e4styspaine heijastuisi saalisrakenneindekseihin, erityisesti saaliin vasanaarassuhteeseen ja aikuissaaliin urososuuteen, ja ett\u00e4 n\u00e4ill\u00e4 indekseill\u00e4 olisi yhteys populaation koon muutokseen vuodesta toiseen. T\u00e4ss\u00e4 ty\u00f6ss\u00e4 osoitamme, ett\u00e4 populaation koon muutoksen ja saalisrakenneindeksien v\u00e4lill\u00e4 on tilastollinen yhteys ja ett\u00e4 indeksej\u00e4 voi k\u00e4ytt\u00e4\u00e4 populaation koon muutoksen ennustamisessa. Tarkastelemme my\u00f6s populaation koon muutoksen ja indeksien v\u00e4lisen riippuvuuden alueellista vaihtelua Suomessa.\n\nPopulaation koon muutoksen ja saalisrakenneindeksien v\u00e4lisen yhteyden mallinnuksessa k\u00e4yt\u00e4mme kiinteiden vaikutusten lineaarisia regressiomalleja ja lineaarisia sekamalleja, joissa populaation koon muutoksen selitt\u00e4jin\u00e4 toimivat joko vasanaarassuhde, urososuus tai molemmat. Aloitamme populaation koon muutoksen ja saalisrakenneindeksien v\u00e4lisen yhteyden tutkimisen valtakunnallisten regressiomallien sovittamisella. N\u00e4ist\u00e4 jatkamme riistanhoitopiirikohtaisiin regressiomalleihin, joista n\u00e4emme, kuinka suuria eroja piirien v\u00e4lill\u00e4 on. Otamme alueellisen vaihtelun huomioon laajentamalla regressiomallin sekamalliksi lis\u00e4\u00e4m\u00e4ll\u00e4 siihen piirien v\u00e4list\u00e4 vaihtelua kuvaavan satunnaisvaikutuksen.\n\nValtakunnallisesti ilman piirierottelua toimivat hyvin varsinkin regressiomallit, joissa populaation koon muutosta selitt\u00e4v\u00e4t vasanaarassuhde tai vasanaarassuhde ja urososuus. Piiritasolla vasanaarassuhde yksin\u00e4\u00e4n toimii populaation koon muutoksen selitt\u00e4j\u00e4n\u00e4 suuremmalle m\u00e4\u00e4r\u00e4lle piirej\u00e4 kuin urososuus tai molemmat yhdess\u00e4. Piirien v\u00e4lill\u00e4 n\u00e4ytt\u00e4\u00e4 olevan enemm\u00e4n eroa urososuuden kuin vasanaarassuhteen selitt\u00e4ess\u00e4 populaation koon muutosta. Sekamalleihin siirrytt\u00e4ess\u00e4 huomaamme yll\u00e4tt\u00e4en, ett\u00e4 urososuuden tapauksessa sekamalli osoittautuu tarpeettomaksi, ja regressiomalli on riitt\u00e4v\u00e4. Nelj\u00e4n parhaaksi arvioidun mallin antamat piirikohtaiset kannanmuutosennusteet vuosille 2001\u20132012 ovat yht\u00e4 mallia lukuun ottamatta hyvin samanlaiset. Diagnostiset tarkastelut osoittavat, ett\u00e4 paras sekamallimme ja erityisesti paras regressiomallimme ovat onnistuneita.", "language": "fi", "element": "description", "qualifier": "abstract", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.description.provenance", "value": "Submitted using Plone Publishing form by Viivi Nuojua (viannuoj) on 2014-08-23 19:14:34.241357. Form: Pro gradu -lomake (https://kirjasto.jyu.fi/julkaisut/julkaisulomakkeet/pro-gradu-lomake). JyX data: [jyx_publishing-allowed (fi) =True]", "language": "en", "element": "description", "qualifier": "provenance", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.description.provenance", "value": "Submitted by jyx lomake-julkaisija (jyx-julkaisija@noreply.fi) on 2014-08-23T19:14:34Z\nNo. of bitstreams: 2\nURN:NBN:fi:jyu-201408232622.pdf: 761085 bytes, checksum: 074972029b686c18b463a483a8bc3237 (MD5)\nlicense.html: 4828 bytes, checksum: c22e2c54ddce107ac3a52406daba7ce7 (MD5)", "language": "en", "element": "description", "qualifier": "provenance", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.description.provenance", "value": "Made available in DSpace on 2014-08-23T19:14:34Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2\nURN:NBN:fi:jyu-201408232622.pdf: 761085 bytes, checksum: 074972029b686c18b463a483a8bc3237 (MD5)\nlicense.html: 4828 bytes, checksum: c22e2c54ddce107ac3a52406daba7ce7 (MD5)\n Previous issue date: 2014", "language": "en", "element": "description", "qualifier": "provenance", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.format.extent", "value": "1 verkkoaineisto (50 sivua)", "language": null, "element": "format", "qualifier": "extent", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.format.mimetype", "value": "application/pdf", "language": null, "element": "format", "qualifier": "mimetype", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.language.iso", "value": "fin", "language": null, "element": "language", "qualifier": "iso", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.rights", "value": "In Copyright", "language": "en", "element": "rights", "qualifier": null, "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.other", "value": "Hirvi", "language": "", "element": "subject", "qualifier": "other", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.other", "value": "populaation koon muutos", "language": "", "element": "subject", "qualifier": "other", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.other", "value": "kannanmuutoksen ennustaminen", "language": "", "element": "subject", "qualifier": "other", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.other", "value": "saalisrakenneindeksi", "language": "", "element": "subject", "qualifier": "other", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.other", "value": "mets\u00e4styspaine", "language": "", "element": "subject", "qualifier": "other", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.other", "value": "urososuus", "language": "", "element": "subject", "qualifier": "other", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.other", "value": "vasanaarassuhde", "language": "", "element": "subject", "qualifier": "other", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.other", "value": "Riistaweb", "language": "", "element": "subject", "qualifier": "other", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.other", "value": "riistanhoitopiiri", "language": "", "element": 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"Jyv\u00e4skyl\u00e4n yliopisto", "language": "fi", "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "organization", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.discipline", "value": "Tilastotiede", "language": "fi", "element": "subject", "qualifier": "discipline", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.discipline", "value": "Statistics", "language": "en", "element": "subject", "qualifier": "discipline", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.date.updated", "value": "2014-08-23T19:14:35Z", "language": null, "element": "date", "qualifier": "updated", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.type.coar", "value": "http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_bdcc", "language": null, "element": "type", "qualifier": "coar", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.rights.accesslevel", "value": "openAccess", "language": null, "element": "rights", "qualifier": "accesslevel", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.type.publication", "value": "masterThesis", "language": null, "element": "type", "qualifier": "publication", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": 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