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[{"key": "dc.contributor.author", "value": "Arjoranta, Tiia", "language": null, "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "author", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.date.accessioned", "value": "2012-11-05T13:03:44Z", "language": null, "element": "date", "qualifier": "accessioned", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.date.available", "value": "2012-11-05T13:03:44Z", "language": null, "element": "date", "qualifier": "available", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.date.issued", "value": "2012", "language": null, "element": "date", "qualifier": "issued", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.identifier.other", "value": "oai:jykdok.linneanet.fi:1234371", "language": null, "element": "identifier", "qualifier": "other", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.identifier.uri", "value": "https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/40163", "language": null, "element": "identifier", "qualifier": "uri", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.description.abstract", "value": "Valkoh\u00e4nt\u00e4kauris (Odocoileus virginianus) on Yhdysvalloista Suomeen tuotu vieraslaji. Kauriiden ja autojen yhteent\u00f6rm\u00e4ykset ovat lis\u00e4\u00e4ntyneet kauriiden m\u00e4\u00e4r\u00e4n kasvaessa. Kolareiden ja muiden kauriista aiheutuvien haittojen v\u00e4hent\u00e4miseksi kannan kokoa s\u00e4\u00e4dell\u00e4\u00e4n mets\u00e4st\u00e4m\u00e4ll\u00e4. Vuosittaisten mets\u00e4styslupien m\u00e4\u00e4r\u00e4 p\u00e4\u00e4tet\u00e4\u00e4n kannan koon arvioiden perusteella. T\u00e4ss\u00e4 ty\u00f6ss\u00e4 esitell\u00e4\u00e4n uusi tapa arvioida Suomen valkoh\u00e4nt\u00e4kauriiden kantaa.\n\nVuosittain mets\u00e4stettyjen valkoh\u00e4nt\u00e4kauriiden lukum\u00e4\u00e4r\u00e4t tunnetaan mets\u00e4st\u00e4jien ilmoitusten perusteella. Lis\u00e4ksi mets\u00e4st\u00e4j\u00e4t antavat oman arvionsa mets\u00e4stysalueensa mets\u00e4styksen j\u00e4lkeisest\u00e4 kauriiden kannasta. T\u00e4ss\u00e4 tutkielmassa kuvataan n\u00e4it\u00e4 tietoja hy\u00f6dynt\u00e4v\u00e4 Bayes-tilastotieteen malli kauriiden m\u00e4\u00e4r\u00e4n estimoimiseksi. Malli huomioi kauriiden el\u00e4m\u00e4nkierron eli populaatiodynamiikan aiheuttaman luonnollisen muutoksen kannan kokoon.\n\nBayes-tilastotieteess\u00e4 tehd\u00e4\u00e4n ennakko-oletuksia tuntemattomien muuttujien jakaumista. \nMuuttujien arvioituja jakaumia sanotaan prioreiksi. My\u00f6s tunnettuun aineistoon liitet\u00e4\u00e4n jakaumia, joiden avulla muodostetaan uskottavuusfunktio. Yhdist\u00e4m\u00e4ll\u00e4 priorijakaumat, aineisto ja uskottavuusfunktio p\u00e4\u00e4dyt\u00e4\u00e4n posteriorijakaumaan. T\u00e4ss\u00e4 monimutkaisen mallin muuttujien marginaaliposterioreita on laskennan helpottamiseksi simuloitu Metropolisin-Hastingsin ja Gibbsin algoritmeilla, niihin pohjautuvilla menetelmill\u00e4 sek\u00e4 slice sampling -menetelm\u00e4n avulla.\n\nMarginaaliposteriorit paljastavat aineiston sis\u00e4lt\u00e4m\u00e4n tiedon tuntemattomista muuttujista. Simulointien my\u00f6t\u00e4 saadaan my\u00f6s arviot kauriiden m\u00e4\u00e4rille kunakin vuonna. Mallista saatuja kanta-arvioita voidaan verrata mets\u00e4st\u00e4jien j\u00e4\u00e4v\u00e4n kannan arvioihin. \n\nT\u00e4ss\u00e4 tutkielmassa malli on sovitettu P\u00f6yty\u00e4n riistanhoitoyhdistyksen aineistolle. Mallin ja mets\u00e4st\u00e4jien kanta-arviot ovat samansuuntaisia, joskin mallin arviot vaihtelevat mets\u00e4st\u00e4jien arvioita v\u00e4hemm\u00e4n. Niukallakin aineistolla kauriiden lukum\u00e4\u00e4r\u00e4n vaihteluv\u00e4list\u00e4 on saatu kohtuullisen kapea.", "language": null, "element": "description", "qualifier": "abstract", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.description.provenance", "value": "Submitted using Plone Publishing form by Tiia Arjoranta (timaarjo) on 2012-11-05 13:03:43.337679. Form: Pro gradu -lomake (1 tekij\u00e4) (https://kirjasto.jyu.fi/julkaisut/julkaisulomakkeet/pro-gradu-lomake-1-tekijae). JyX data:", "language": "en", "element": "description", "qualifier": "provenance", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.description.provenance", "value": "Submitted by jyx lomake-julkaisija (jyx-julkaisija@noreply.fi) on 2012-11-05T13:03:44Z\nNo. of bitstreams: 2\nURN:NBN:fi:jyu-201211052853.pdf: 3966694 bytes, checksum: 74b6d7a58ea10e496db97750aa53bb2a (MD5)\nlicense.html: 5042 bytes, checksum: 6631ef22c5c5e437e1444c8f3356c8c0 (MD5)", "language": "en", "element": "description", "qualifier": "provenance", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.description.provenance", "value": "Made available in DSpace on 2012-11-05T13:03:44Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2\nURN:NBN:fi:jyu-201211052853.pdf: 3966694 bytes, checksum: 74b6d7a58ea10e496db97750aa53bb2a (MD5)\nlicense.html: 5042 bytes, checksum: 6631ef22c5c5e437e1444c8f3356c8c0 (MD5)\n Previous issue date: 2012", "language": "en", "element": "description", "qualifier": "provenance", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.format.extent", "value": "41 sivua", "language": null, "element": "format", "qualifier": "extent", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.format.mimetype", "value": "application/pdf", "language": null, "element": "format", "qualifier": "mimetype", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.language.iso", "value": "fin", "language": null, "element": "language", "qualifier": "iso", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.rights", "value": "In Copyright", "language": "en", "element": "rights", "qualifier": null, "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.other", "value": "valkoh\u00e4nt\u00e4kauris", "language": "", "element": "subject", "qualifier": "other", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.other", "value": "valkoh\u00e4nt\u00e4peura", "language": "", "element": "subject", "qualifier": "other", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.other", "value": "kannanlaskenta", "language": "", "element": "subject", "qualifier": "other", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.other", "value": "Bayes", "language": "", "element": "subject", "qualifier": "other", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.other", "value": "populaatiomalli", "language": "", "element": "subject", "qualifier": "other", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.other", "value": "simulointi", "language": "", "element": "subject", "qualifier": "other", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.other", "value": "MCMC", "language": "", "element": "subject", "qualifier": "other", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.other", "value": "riistanhoito", "language": "", "element": "subject", "qualifier": "other", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.title", "value": "Dynaaminen populaatiomalli Suomen valkoh\u00e4nt\u00e4kauriille : sovelluskohteena P\u00f6yty\u00e4n riistanhoitoyhdistys", "language": null, "element": "title", "qualifier": null, "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.type", "value": "master thesis", "language": null, "element": "type", "qualifier": null, "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.identifier.urn", "value": "URN:NBN:fi:jyu-201211052853", "language": null, "element": "identifier", "qualifier": "urn", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.type.dcmitype", "value": "Text", "language": "en", "element": "type", "qualifier": "dcmitype", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.type.ontasot", "value": "Pro gradu -tutkielma", "language": "fi", "element": "type", "qualifier": "ontasot", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.type.ontasot", "value": "Master\u2019s thesis", "language": "en", "element": "type", "qualifier": "ontasot", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.contributor.faculty", "value": "Matemaattis-luonnontieteellinen tiedekunta", "language": "fi", "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "faculty", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.contributor.faculty", "value": "Faculty of Sciences", "language": "en", "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "faculty", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.contributor.department", "value": "Matematiikan ja tilastotieteen laitos", "language": "fi", "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "department", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.contributor.department", "value": "Department of Mathematics and Statistics", "language": "en", "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "department", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.contributor.organization", "value": "University of Jyv\u00e4skyl\u00e4", "language": "en", "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "organization", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.contributor.organization", "value": "Jyv\u00e4skyl\u00e4n yliopisto", "language": "fi", "element": "contributor", "qualifier": "organization", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.discipline", "value": "Tilastotiede", "language": "fi", "element": "subject", "qualifier": "discipline", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.discipline", "value": "Statistics", "language": "en", "element": "subject", "qualifier": "discipline", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.date.updated", "value": "2012-11-05T13:03:44Z", "language": null, "element": "date", "qualifier": "updated", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.type.coar", "value": "http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_bdcc", "language": null, "element": "type", "qualifier": "coar", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.rights.accesslevel", "value": "openAccess", "language": "fi", "element": "rights", "qualifier": "accesslevel", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.type.publication", "value": "masterThesis", "language": null, "element": "type", "qualifier": "publication", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.oppiainekoodi", "value": "4043", "language": null, "element": "subject", "qualifier": "oppiainekoodi", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.yso", "value": "valkoh\u00e4nt\u00e4peura", "language": null, "element": "subject", "qualifier": "yso", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.yso", "value": "el\u00e4inkannat", "language": null, "element": "subject", "qualifier": "yso", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.yso", "value": "populaatiot", "language": null, "element": "subject", "qualifier": "yso", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.yso", "value": "laskentamallit", "language": null, "element": "subject", "qualifier": "yso", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.yso", "value": "simulointi", "language": null, "element": "subject", "qualifier": "yso", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.yso", "value": "riistanhoito", "language": null, "element": "subject", "qualifier": "yso", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.yso", "value": "bayesilainen menetelm\u00e4", "language": null, "element": "subject", "qualifier": "yso", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.subject.yso", "value": "tilastomenetelm\u00e4t", "language": null, "element": "subject", "qualifier": "yso", "schema": "dc"}, {"key": "dc.format.content", "value": "fulltext", "language": null, "element": "format", "qualifier": 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